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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
17.10.2026 11:30
26 May Stadium

Samgurali vs Meshakhte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 40.3%
Draw 25.5%
Meshakhte Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.63
Meshakhte1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
58 GF / 61 GA
Meshakhte Meshakhte
WLDWL
26 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
25
BTTS Yes
18
24
Over 2.5
15
4.68
Shots on Goal
2.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 37 matches
Meshakhte Meshakhte 32 matches
Samgurali Statistic Meshakhte
14 Wins 3
8 Draws 11
15 Losses 18
58 Goals For 26
61 Goals Against 55
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
25 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 21
24 Over 2.5 15
15 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 11
4.68 Shots On Goal 2.18
4.93 Total Shots 3.07
5.29 Corners 3.29
51% Ball Possession 43.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Meshakhte. Samgurali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Samgurali expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Meshakhte in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Meshakhte having the stronger overall control. Samgurali arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 32 points compared to Meshakhte in 10 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Samgurali Analysis

Samgurali approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 32 points from 27 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 38:52, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Meshakhte Analysis

Meshakhte are currently 10 in the standings with 17 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 11 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 20:44 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 9 times, Meshakhte won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:6 from Samgurali's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.5%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali 4-2-3-1 / Meshakhte 5-4-1
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 9, draws 2, Meshakhte wins 1

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 47:36 11 50
W W D W W
2 28 14 7 7 35:24 11 49
W L W D L
3 28 15 4 9 40:31 9 49
W L W W W
4 28 13 9 6 45:31 14 48
L W W W D
5 28 12 4 12 39:33 6 40
L W L D W
6 28 9 10 9 46:37 9 37
D L W D D
7 28 10 5 13 41:52 -11 35
W L L L L
8 28 6 11 11 25:40 -15 29
L D L D L
9 28 5 11 12 37:46 -9 26
D L L D D
10 28 2 11 15 21:46 -25 17
L D L D D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2