COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Departamental Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.6%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.31
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.6%
1.22
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.31
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.40
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pasto Win 45%
Draw 25.6%
Llaneros Win 29.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto1.19
Llaneros1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WWDLW
34 GF / 37 GA
Llaneros Llaneros
WLDWL
23 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1
13
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
5
3.72
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 26 matches
Llaneros Llaneros 24 matches
Deportivo Pasto Statistic Llaneros
11 Wins 6
4 Draws 12
11 Losses 6
34 Goals For 23
37 Goals Against 24
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1
13 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 7
3.72 Shots On Goal 3.78
11.52 Total Shots 10.57
4.04 Corners 5.09
51.8% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Pasto's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Pasto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 34 points compared to Llaneros in 14 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pasto expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Llaneros in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Llaneros having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Llaneros. Deportivo Pasto have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 34 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 29:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Santiago Córdoba (1 goals), Jorge Obregón (1 goals), Joider Micolta (1 goals), with creative support from Santiago Córdoba (1 assists), Diego Chávez (1 assists), Hervin Goyes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Neider Ospina (2 goals), Jhon Vásquez (1 goals), Francisco Meza (1 goals), with creative support from Neider Ospina (1 assists), Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), Luis Miranda (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 3 times, Llaneros won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:2 from Deportivo Pasto's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.5%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2 / Llaneros 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Pasto wins 3, draws 0, Llaneros wins 1
Last matches: Deportivo Pasto
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
05.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Millonarios
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
25.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Junior
3
4
L
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares
3
2
W
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
01.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
29.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Fortaleza FC
2
1
W
18.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Chico
2
0
W
13.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Once Caldas
2
4
L
10.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
America de Cali
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Cucuta
3
2
W
21.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pereira
2
2
D
15.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
1
0
W
Last matches: Llaneros
19.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
04.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
W
31.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Llaneros
Chico
0
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Junior
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
01.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Santa Fe
1
0
W
30.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
America de Cali
0
0
D
17.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Cucuta
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Jaguares
2
0
W
05.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
1
2
L
10.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
02.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
H2H: Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros
10.02.26
H2H
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
W
23.08.25
H2H
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
L
02.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
3
0
W
08.03.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
1
0
W
Last matches: Deportivo Pasto
09.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
29.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
18.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Chico
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
America de Cali
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Cucuta
3
2
W
15.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
29.01.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Millonarios
2
1
W
18.01.26
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Independiente Medellin
1
0
W
09.01.26
Fri
Deportivo Pasto
Bogota FC
2
0
W
14.11.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Bucaramanga
3
0
W
28.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pereira
4
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
2
2
D
05.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Alianza Valledupar
3
3
D
25.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
America de Cali
0
2
L
20.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
1
1
D
H2H at home: Deportivo Pasto
02.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
3
0
W
08.03.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
1
0
W
Last matches: Llaneros
19.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
31.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
02.05.26
Pri
Llaneros
Chico
0
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Junior
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
01.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Santa Fe
1
0
W
26.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
America de Cali
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
16.01.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
3
L
25.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
0
2
L
12.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Santa Fe
3
1
W
27.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
1
3
L
14.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
29.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Junior
0
4
L
16.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
2
L
H2H away: Llaneros
02.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
3
0
L
08.03.25
H2H
Deportivo Pasto
Llaneros
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.26
Draw 3.14
Home 1.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.52
Over 2.0 1.71
Over 2.25 2.02
Over 2.5 2.31
Over 2.75 2.73
Over 3.5 4.23
Under 1.5 2.81
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.11
Under 2.25 1.78
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.5 1.21
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 3.10
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.05
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.30
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.30
Over 3.5 4.33
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.11
Draw 3.12
Home 1.96
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.11
Draw 1.90
Home 2.64
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.47
Draw 2.27
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.05
Over 1.0 1.07
Over 1.25 1.22
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.66
Over 2.25 1.98
Over 2.5 2.29
Over 2.75 2.61
Over 3.0 3.38
Over 3.25 3.72
Over 3.5 4.10
Over 3.75 5.29
Over 4.0 7.80
Over 4.25 8.20
Over 4.5 8.70
Over 5.5 18.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 7.20
Under 0.75 6.54
Under 1.0 5.80
Under 1.25 3.50
Under 1.5 2.69
Under 1.75 2.36
Under 2.0 2.03
Under 2.25 1.78
Under 2.5 1.59
Under 2.75 1.40
Under 3.0 1.25
Under 3.25 1.19
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.09
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 3.25
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.25
Draw 2.04
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 2.35
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 2.0 1.64
Over 2.25 1.92
Over 2.5 2.18
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.0 3.25
Over 3.25 3.60
Over 3.5 3.95
Over 3.75 4.90
Over 4.0 6.75
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.0 2.07
Under 2.25 1.76
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 3.75 1.13
Under 4.0 1.06

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W W W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L W W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D L L D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D L W L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W W W D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D L L L W
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D D D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L D L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L W L
Post season qualification