BRAZIL SERIE A
30.08.2026 19:00
Neo Quimica Arena
Referee: Wilton Sampaio
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Álvaro Barreal
Santos
🟨
20'
Willian Arão
Santos
🔄
24'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ C. Oliva
Santos
🟨
31'
Gabriel Paulista
Corinthians
33'
C. Oliva
Santos
🟨
45+4'
Raniele
Corinthians
🟨
45+2'
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
🟨
45+4'
Lucas Veríssimo
Santos
🔄
64'
Allan ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🔄
66'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
73'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ B. Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
73'
A. Barreal ↔ D. Fernandes
Santos
🔄
77'
Dieguinho ↔ Gui Negao
Corinthians
🔄
84'
Raniele ↔ M. Pereira
Corinthians

Corinthians vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 49.4%
Odds 1.86
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.27
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
49.4%
1.86
BTTS No
50.8%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.27
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 3-0
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 49.4%
Draw 17.2%
Santos Win 33.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.25
Santos1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
36 GF / 29 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
36 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
15
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
15
3.84
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 33 matches
Santos Santos 24 matches
Corinthians Statistic Santos
12 Wins 7
12 Draws 8
9 Losses 9
36 Goals For 36
29 Goals Against 36
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
15 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 8
15 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 3
3.84 Shots On Goal 3.91
11.84 Total Shots 13.43
4.63 Corners 5.61
55.3% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Corinthians's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santos. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians are currently 9 in the standings with 32 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 25:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Rodrigo Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Santos Analysis

Santos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 25 points from 22 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 32:35 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gabriel Barbosa (8 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 6 times, Santos won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from Corinthians's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Corinthians 7, Santos 3
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 6, draws 5, Santos wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B