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BRAZIL › SERIE A
20.09.2026 19:00
Neo Quimica Arena
Referee: Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Memphis Depay
Corinthians
⚽
24'
Hulk · Assist: Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
VAR
24'
Hulk
Fluminense
🟨
35'
Matheuzinho
Corinthians
🟨
44'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🟨
45+6'
Martinelli
Fluminense
🔄
46'
Iago Machado ↔ Gui Negão
Corinthians
⚽
56'
Gustavo Henrique
Corinthians
🔄
59'
Luciano Acosta ↔ Ganso
Fluminense
🔄
59'
Samuel Xavier ↔ Júlio Fidelis
Fluminense
🟨
61'
André Luiz
Corinthians
🟨
62'
Agustín Canobbio
Fluminense
🟨
64'
Júlio Fidelis
Fluminense
🟨
71'
Nonato
Fluminense
⚽
76'
Hulk · Assist: Ganso
Fluminense
🔄
76'
Nonato ↔ Hércules
Fluminense
🔄
76'
Agustín Canobbio ↔ Riquelme Felipe
Fluminense
🔄
80'
André Luiz ↔ Jesse Lingard
Corinthians
🔄
81'
Memphis Depay ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🔄
87'
Hulk ↔ Rodrigo Castillo
Fluminense
🔄
88'
Breno Bidon ↔ Matheus Pereira
Corinthians
⚽
90+3'
Kevin Serna · Assist: Martinelli
Fluminense

Corinthians vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 26.8%
Draw 20.9%
Fluminense Win 52.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.09
Fluminense1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
39 GF / 36 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
60 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.54
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
18
BTTS Yes
27
11
Over 2.5
19
3.7
Shots on Goal
5.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 38 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 39 matches
Corinthians Statistic Fluminense
12 Wins 17
13 Draws 13
13 Losses 9
39 Goals For 60
36 Goals Against 46
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
18 BTTS Yes 27
26 Over 1.5 32
11 Over 2.5 19
4 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 6
3.7 Shots On Goal 5.27
11.65 Total Shots 14.19
4.49 Corners 5.03
54.9% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fluminense's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 45 points while Corinthians sit 12 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fluminense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Corinthians have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 12 with 32 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 27:27, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through R. Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 45 points after 27 matches. The return of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 41:35, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), L. Acosta (4 goals), R. Castillo (4 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (3 assists), A. Canobbio (2 assists), K. Serna (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 6 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:19 from Corinthians's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.1%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Corinthians 4, Fluminense 6
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 6, draws 4, Fluminense wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B