COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
12.09.2026 23:10
Estadio La Independencia

Chico vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.84
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.4%
1.84
BTTS No
50.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.09
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
77.7%
1.09
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75
Correct Score 0-3
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 36.8%
Draw 10.8%
Independiente Medellin Win 52.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico0.94
Independiente Medellin1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
19 GF / 44 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
53 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.76
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
5
BTTS Yes
24
11
Over 2.5
21
2.92
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 25 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 36 matches
Chico Statistic Independiente Medellin
6 Wins 17
4 Draws 8
15 Losses 11
19 Goals For 53
44 Goals Against 44
0.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
5 BTTS Yes 24
17 Over 1.5 27
11 Over 2.5 21
6 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 9
15 Failed To Score 5
2.92 Shots On Goal 4.38
9.36 Total Shots 13.26
3.68 Corners 4.79
44.2% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Independiente Medellin's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente Medellin. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente Medellin look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Independiente Medellin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente Medellin having the stronger overall control.

Chico Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 18, Chico still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 15:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jairo Molina (4 goals), Arlen Banguero (2 goals), Delio Ramírez (1 goals), with creative support from Delio Ramírez (2 assists), Yesus Cabrera (2 assists), Andres Aedo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

So far, Independiente Medellin have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:24 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Montaño (6 goals), Daniel Cataño (2 goals), Alexis Serna (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (3 assists), Frank Fabra (3 assists), Daniel Cataño (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 5 times, Independiente Medellin won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Chico's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-1-4-1 / Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Chico wins 5, draws 2, Independiente Medellin wins 8

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D L D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W D D L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W W D W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D D W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D L D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W L W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D D W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L L D L
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W D D L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L W D D
Post season qualification