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14.10.2026 22:00
Estadio Eva Peron
Referee: Sebastian Zunino
Sarmiento Junin
Match Timeline
River Plate
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
Julián Contrera · Assist: Junior Marabel
Sarmiento Junin
VAR
59'
Fausto Vera
River Plate
🟨
61'
Pablo Daniel Magnin
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
69'
Julián Contrera
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
69'
Julian Mavilla ↔ Elián Giménez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
69'
Jhon Rentería ↔ Jonathan Herrera
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
70'
Tobías Andrada
River Plate
⚽
71'
Gonzalo Montiel · Assist: Thiago Almada
River Plate
🔄
72'
Julián Contrera ↔ Gaston Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
72'
Tomás Ezequiel Galván ↔ Lautaro Pereyra
River Plate
🔄
73'
Marcos Acuña ↔ Francisco Ortega
River Plate
🟨
82'
Fausto Vera
River Plate
🔄
84'
Sebastián Driussi ↔ Lucas Beltran
River Plate

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.2%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 80.2%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds 2.34
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.2%
1.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
80.2%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.7%
2.34 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.4%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
9.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sarmiento Junin Win 45%
Draw 7.8%
River Plate Win 47.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarmiento Junin1.08
River Plate1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WWDLW
34 GF / 39 GA
River Plate River Plate
WLDWL
47 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
14
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
13
3.78
Shots on Goal
5.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 29 matches
River Plate River Plate 35 matches
Sarmiento Junin Statistic River Plate
13 Wins 18
2 Draws 5
14 Losses 12
34 Goals For 47
39 Goals Against 33
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
14 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 9
3.78 Shots On Goal 5.35
10.63 Total Shots 16.55
3.59 Corners 5.48
44.3% Ball Possession 65.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by River Plate's more proactive style and Sarmiento Junin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring River Plate. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sarmiento Junin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and River Plate in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward River Plate having the stronger overall control. River Plate carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 29 points while Sarmiento Junin sit 11 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

Sarmiento Junin are currently 11 in the standings with 19 points from 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 13:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Junior Marabel (8 goals), Mauricio Martínez (2 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (3 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

River Plate Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 29 points from 16 games, River Plate bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 22:12, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Tomás Galván (4 goals), Facundo Colidio (4 goals), Gonzalo Montiel (3 goals), with creative support from Tomás Galván (2 assists), Facundo Colidio (2 assists), Ángel Correa (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Sarmiento Junin won 2 times, River Plate won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:21 from Sarmiento Junin's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2 / River Plate 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sarmiento Junin wins 2, draws 2, River Plate wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L D W W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W L W W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D W L D D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D W W D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W W D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D D D W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L W W W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L W W L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L D W L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase