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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
14.10.2026 23:30
Nu Stadium
Referee: Lorenzo Hernandez
Inter Miami
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
Germán Berterame · Assist: Luis Suárez
Inter Miami
⚽
45+5'
Rodrigo De Paul · Assist: Lionel Messi
Inter Miami
🟨
52'
Matías Galarza
Inter Miami
🔄
58'
Alonso Martinez ↔ Hannes Wolf
New York City FC
🔄
58'
Nico Cavallo ↔ Kevin O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
65'
Matías Galarza ↔ Telasco Segovia
Inter Miami
🔄
65'
Bénie Adama Traoré ↔ Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos
New York City FC
🔄
74'
Sergio Reguilón ↔ Fricio Caicedo
Inter Miami
🔄
75'
Germán Berterame ↔ Riquelme Fillipi
Inter Miami
🟨
85'
Riquelme Fillipi
Inter Miami
🔄
85'
Agustin Ojeda ↔ Malachi Jones
New York City FC
🔄
85'
Aiden O'Neill ↔ Talles Magno
New York City FC
🔄
90'
David Ayala ↔ Ian Fray
Inter Miami
⚽
90+7'
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC

Inter Miami vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
1.55 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.37 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Inter Miami Win 53.2%
Draw 15.2%
New York City FC Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Miami1.87
New York City FC1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WWDLW
75 GF / 58 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
48 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
2.21
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
26
BTTS Yes
22
26
Over 2.5
17
6.03
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Miami Inter Miami 34 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 33 matches
Inter Miami Statistic New York City FC
15 Wins 9
13 Draws 11
6 Losses 13
75 Goals For 48
58 Goals Against 45
2.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
26 BTTS Yes 22
31 Over 1.5 29
26 Over 2.5 17
19 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
6.03 Shots On Goal 4.64
14.87 Total Shots 11.54
5.07 Corners 3.82
57.3% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Inter Miami expected to line up in 4-3-3 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Inter Miami Analysis

Placed 3 with 46 points from 27 outings, Inter Miami continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 64:50 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Messi (13 goals), L. Suárez (10 goals), G. Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from L. Messi (10 assists), R. De Paul (6 assists), T. Segovia (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 33 points from 27 matches. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 41:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Fernández Mercau (10 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), H. Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from A. Ojeda (7 assists), N. Fernández Mercau (4 assists), H. Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Inter Miami won 4 times, New York City FC won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:26 from Inter Miami's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: Inter Miami 4-3-3 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Inter Miami 4, New York City FC 7
H2H summary: Inter Miami wins 4, draws 4, New York City FC wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)