BELGIUM JUPILER PRO LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
Referee: B. Put
Charleroi
Match Timeline
OH Leuven
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
C. Souanga
OH Leuven
🔄
46'
M. Nzita ↔ J. Gaudin
Charleroi
48'
A. Scheidler · Assist: A. Ousou
Charleroi
🔄
58'
K. Van Den Kerkhof ↔ A. Colassin
Charleroi
🔄
58'
P. Pflucke ↔ A. Bernier
Charleroi
🔄
64'
S. Schrijvers ↔ B. Kayo
OH Leuven
🔄
64'
W. Balikwisha ↔ Y. Maziz
OH Leuven
🔄
73'
E. Camara ↔ Y. Khalifi
Charleroi
🔄
73'
A. K. Traore ↔ S. Kaba
OH Leuven
🔄
73'
K. Vaesen ↔ C. Ikwuemesi
OH Leuven
🔄
83'
W. George ↔ L. Lakomy
OH Leuven
🔄
87'
P. Guiagon ↔ Y. Cisse
Charleroi

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Charleroi Win 45%
Draw 22.4%
OH Leuven Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Charleroi1.32
OH Leuven1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Charleroi Charleroi
WWDLW
48 GF / 51 GA
OH Leuven OH Leuven
WLDWL
40 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
21
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
18
4.08
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Charleroi Charleroi 40 matches
OH Leuven OH Leuven 38 matches
Charleroi Statistic OH Leuven
13 Wins 10
9 Draws 9
18 Losses 19
48 Goals For 40
51 Goals Against 57
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
21 BTTS Yes 18
30 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 13
4.08 Shots On Goal 4.11
12.1 Total Shots 12.84
5.15 Corners 4.74
46.8% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring OH Leuven. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. OH Leuven arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Charleroi expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and OH Leuven in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward OH Leuven having the stronger overall control.

Charleroi Analysis

Charleroi come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 30 points after 38 matches. The return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 17 defeats, together with goals at 47:49, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through P. Guiagon (9 goals), A. Bernier (6 goals), Y. Titraoui (5 goals), with creative support from P. Guiagon (5 assists), K. Van Den Kerkhof (4 assists), Etienne Camara (3 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

OH Leuven Analysis

OH Leuven sit 6 with 22 points after 38 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 19 defeats with a 40:57 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Kaba (6 goals), Ewoud Pletinckx (5 goals), Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi (4 goals), with creative support from Siebe Schrijvers (4 assists), Y. Maziz (4 assists), T. Verlinden (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Charleroi won 3 times, OH Leuven won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:21 from Charleroi's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: Charleroi 4-2-3-1 / OH Leuven 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Charleroi wins 3, draws 5, OH Leuven wins 7

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 9 2 50:17 33 66
W D L W L
2 30 20 3 7 59:36 23 63
W D W W W
3 30 18 3 9 47:35 12 57
W L D L W
4 30 13 6 11 49:43 6 45
W L D D D
5 30 12 9 9 39:37 2 45
L D D L W
6 30 12 8 10 43:39 4 44
L W D D L
7 30 11 9 10 46:47 -1 42
L W D D W
8 30 11 7 12 27:35 -8 40
L W D W W
9 30 10 9 11 36:40 -4 39
L L W L D
10 30 9 8 13 31:32 -1 35
W D L L L
11 30 9 7 14 38:42 -4 34
W D L W W
12 30 9 7 14 32:43 -11 34
L D W L D
13 30 8 8 14 38:47 -9 32
W W W W W
14 30 7 10 13 39:47 -8 31
L L W W W
15 30 6 13 11 30:37 -7 31
W L L L L
16 30 3 10 17 24:51 -27 19
D L L W L
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round