BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Condá
Referee: R. Klein
Chapecoense-sc
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
Bruno Pacheco · Assist: Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
31'
Jonathan Calleri ↔ Gustavo Santana
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
Danielzinho ↔ Marcos Antônio
Sao Paulo
🔄
58'
Dylan Borrero ↔ Maurício Garcez
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
62'
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
65'
Heitor ↔ Everton
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
65'
Lucas Ramon ↔ Newton
Sao Paulo
🔄
66'
Pablo Maia ↔ Ferreirinha
Sao Paulo
🟨
71'
Anderson
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
73'
Yago Felipe
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
74'
Yago Felipe ↔ Fernando
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
74'
Giovanni Augusto ↔ Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
74'
Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira ↔ Franco Rossi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
76'
Cauly ↔ Pedro Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🟨
88'
Camilo
Chapecoense-sc

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 90.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
90.2%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 9.8%
Draw 35.6%
Sao Paulo Win 54.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc1.13
Sao Paulo1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WWDLW
25 GF / 47 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
27 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.23
2.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
15
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
9
3.27
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 23 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 22 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Sao Paulo
2 Wins 7
8 Draws 6
13 Losses 9
25 Goals For 27
47 Goals Against 26
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
2.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
15 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 4
3.27 Shots On Goal 4.05
12.27 Total Shots 12.36
3.77 Corners 6.36
42.8% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 26 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 10 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 20:43, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Marcinho (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Walter Clar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 12 with 26 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 26:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Luciano (5 goals), Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, Sao Paulo won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from Chapecoense-sc's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Chapecoense-sc 8, Sao Paulo 6
H2H summary: Chapecoense-sc wins 4, draws 6, Sao Paulo wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
8 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
9 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B