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BRAZIL › SERIE A
16.08.2026 14:00
Arena Condá
Referee: Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil
Chapecoense-sc
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
Alejo Véliz
Bahia
⚽
19'
Giovanni Augusto · Assist: Yago Felipe
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
42'
Kauan
Bahia
🔄
46'
Bruno Matias ↔ Franco Rossi
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
Heitor ↔ Everton
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
Kevin Ramírez ↔ Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
48'
Marcinho · Assist: Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
65'
Nicolás Acevedo · Assist: Jean Lucas
Bahia
🔄
66'
Román Gómez ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🔄
66'
Jean Lucas ↔ Erick
Bahia
🔄
67'
Luciano Juba ↔ José Guilherme
Bahia
🔄
67'
Kauê Furquim ↔ Mateo Sanabria
Bahia
⚽
71'
Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira · Assist: Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
78'
Fernando ↔ Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
78'
Yago Felipe ↔ David Antunes
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
83'
Rodrigo Nestor ↔ Michel Araújo
Bahia
🟨
84'
Mateo Sanabria
Bahia
🟨
89'
Camilo
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
90+2'
Erick Pulga
Bahia

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 7.7%
Draw 27.9%
Bahia Win 64.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc1.06
Bahia1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WWDLW
22 GF / 44 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
35 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.35
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
14
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
12
3.29
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 22 matches
Bahia Bahia 26 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Bahia
2 Wins 10
7 Draws 9
13 Losses 7
22 Goals For 35
44 Goals Against 30
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
14 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 5
3.29 Shots On Goal 4.5
12.29 Total Shots 13.75
3.81 Corners 5.63
43.2% Ball Possession 55.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Bahia's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bahia. Chapecoense-sc have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Bahia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 32 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chapecoense-sc expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 10 points from 20 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 19:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Marcinho (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Walter Clar (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bahia Analysis

Placed 5 with 32 points from 21 outings, Bahia continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:25 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 5 times, Bahia won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Chapecoense-sc's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Chapecoense-sc 7, Bahia 5
H2H summary: Chapecoense-sc wins 5, draws 5, Bahia wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5
Bahia Away
30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B