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15.10.2026 02:30
Snapdragon Stadium
Referee: Serhiy Boiko
San Diego
Match Timeline
Houston Dynamo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Lawrence Ennali
Houston Dynamo
VAR
18'
Cédric Bakambu
San Diego
🟨
19'
Jonathan Bond
Houston Dynamo
⚽
20'
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
⚽
22'
Cédric Bakambu · Assist: Onni Valakari
San Diego
⚽
24'
Guilherme Augusto · Assist: Lawrence Ennali
Houston Dynamo
⚽
33'
Mateusz Bogusz · Assist: Guilherme Augusto
Houston Dynamo
⚽
37'
Guilherme Augusto
Houston Dynamo
🟨
44'
Guilherme Augusto
Houston Dynamo
🔄
45'
Lyle Foster ↔ Duncan McGuire
Houston Dynamo
🟨
53'
kieran sargeant
San Diego
🔄
58'
Alejandro Alvarado Jr ↔ David Mimbang
San Diego
🔄
58'
Onni Valakari ↔ Gabriel Pirani
San Diego
🔄
58'
Cédric Bakambu ↔ Marcus Ingvartsen
San Diego
🔄
76'
kieran sargeant ↔ Aníbal Godoy
San Diego
🔄
76'
Elias Achouri ↔ Amahl Pellegrino
San Diego
🟨
77'
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
🔄
77'
Guilherme Augusto ↔ Ibrahim Aliyu
Houston Dynamo
🔄
78'
Agustín Bouzat ↔ Agustin Resch
Houston Dynamo
🟨
79'
Aníbal Godoy
San Diego
⚽
86'
Gabriel Pirani
San Diego
🔄
88'
Mateusz Bogusz ↔ Duane Holmes
Houston Dynamo
🔄
90+3'
Lawrence Ennali ↔ Marcelo Saracchi
Houston Dynamo

San Diego vs Houston Dynamo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 44.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
44.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Diego Win 41.1%
Draw 14.5%
Houston Dynamo Win 44.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Diego1.51
Houston Dynamo1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Diego San Diego
L D D L L
8 GF / 17 GA
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
D L D L W
6 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
18
BTTS Yes
18
22
Over 2.5
17
4.41
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Diego San Diego 33 matches
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 37 matches
San Diego Statistic Houston Dynamo
11 Wins 20
8 Draws 8
14 Losses 9
57 Goals For 57
59 Goals Against 44
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
18 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 27
22 Over 2.5 17
18 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 8
4.41 Shots On Goal 4.5
11.63 Total Shots 13.25
4.69 Corners 4.32
58% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Houston Dynamo's more proactive style and San Diego's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Diego expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Houston Dynamo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Houston Dynamo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Houston Dynamo. San Diego have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

San Diego Analysis

With 32 points from 27 games and a place of 12, San Diego still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 47:47, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Ingvartsen (8 goals), A. Dreyer (4 goals), D. Vazquez (3 goals), with creative support from A. Dreyer (8 assists), O. Valakari (3 assists), L. Morgan (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 44 points after 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, while the 34:32 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Guilherme (8 goals), M. Bogusz (5 goals), L. Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (3 assists), L. Ennali (3 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, San Diego won 1 times, Houston Dynamo won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:7 from San Diego's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: San Diego 3-4-3 / Houston Dynamo 4-4-2
Missing players: San Diego 1, Houston Dynamo 4
H2H summary: San Diego wins 1, draws 0, Houston Dynamo wins 2

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 16 7 8 63:32 31 55
L W D D L
2 31 15 9 7 58:47 11 54
W D W L W
3 31 14 9 8 56:44 12 51
L L D W W
4 31 13 9 9 52:45 7 48
L D D D W
5 31 13 9 9 41:39 2 48
D D D D L
6 32 12 11 9 50:35 15 47
D D W D L
7 31 11 10 10 41:39 2 43
D D L W W
8 31 12 6 13 42:41 1 42
W D D D L
9 32 10 11 11 45:54 -9 41
D D W L W
10 31 11 6 14 48:48 0 39
W W D L W
11 31 10 7 14 54:58 -4 37
W D L D L
12 31 8 11 12 55:58 -3 35
D D D L D
13 31 8 11 12 47:55 -8 35
D W D D L
14 31 8 10 13 40:57 -17 34
W L L L D
15 31 6 4 21 37:77 -40 22
L L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)