ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio dei Marmi
Referee: D. Perenzoni
Carrarese
Match Timeline
Cesena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Gabriele Parlanti
Carrarese
🔄
46'
E. Torregrossa ↔ T. Rubino
Carrarese
🔄
46'
G. Parlanti ↔ E. Zuelli
Carrarese
🟨
55'
Fabio Abiuso
Carrarese
🔄
58'
R. Ciervo ↔ G. Castrovilli
Cesena
🔄
58'
G. Frabotta ↔ T. Corazza
Cesena
🔄
65'
N. Schiavi ↔ F. Melegoni
Carrarese
🟨
72'
Nicolò Calabrese
Carrarese
🔄
76'
S. Zanon ↔ D. Bouah
Carrarese
🔄
78'
C. Shpendi ↔ M. Castagnetti
Cesena
🔄
83'
F. Abiuso ↔ M. Finotto
Carrarese
🔄
85'
A. Cerri ↔ G. Vrioni
Cesena
🔄
85'
M. Mangraviti ↔ M. Piacentini
Cesena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 26%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
33.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
26%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Carrarese Win 65.3%
Draw 7.6%
Cesena Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Carrarese1.31
Cesena1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Carrarese Carrarese
WWDLW
46 GF / 52 GA
Cesena Cesena
WLDWL
42 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
17
BTTS Yes
22
18
Over 2.5
19
3.95
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Carrarese Carrarese 37 matches
Cesena Cesena 37 matches
Carrarese Statistic Cesena
10 Wins 12
13 Draws 10
14 Losses 15
46 Goals For 42
52 Goals Against 52
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
17 BTTS Yes 22
28 Over 1.5 29
18 Over 2.5 19
11 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 11
3.95 Shots On Goal 3.89
13.03 Total Shots 12.97
5.54 Corners 4.73
49.9% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cesena. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Carrarese expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Cesena in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cesena having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Carrarese Analysis

Carrarese are currently 10 in the standings with 43 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 13 draws, and 13 losses, while the 46:50 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Abiuso (11 goals), N. Schiavi (6 goals), Luis Hasa (5 goals), with creative support from S. Zanon (6 assists), F. Abiuso (5 assists), Emanuele Zuelli (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cesena Analysis

Cesena sit 9 with 45 points after 36 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 42:52 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Shpendi (10 goals), R. Ciervo (5 goals), Gianluca Frabotta (4 goals), with creative support from T. Berti (7 assists), C. Shpendi (4 assists), R. Ciervo (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Carrarese won 3 times, Cesena won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Carrarese's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Carrarese 3-5-2 / Cesena 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Carrarese wins 3, draws 3, Cesena wins 4
Stats
Carrarese Carrarese
Cesena Cesena
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
11
Blocked Shots
2
10 Corner Kicks 4
18 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 1
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Goal 2
9 Shots off Goal 2
11 Blocked Shots 2
11 Shots insidebox 4
12 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
477 Total passes 348
403 Passes accurate 261
1.13 expected_goals 0.45
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Carrarese
Formation
Cesena
M. Bleve
M. Bleve
N. Calabrese
N. Calabrese
J. Illanes
J. Illanes
F. Oliana
F. Oliana
S. Zanon
S. Zanon
G. Parlanti
G. Parlanti
N. Schiavi
N. Schiavi
L. Hasa
L. Hasa
N. Belloni
N. Belloni
F. Abiuso
F. Abiuso
E. Torregrossa
E. Torregrossa
A. Siano
A. Siano
A. Ciofi
A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
G. Zaro
M. Mangraviti
M. Mangraviti
G. Frabotta
G. Frabotta
T. Berti
T. Berti
D. Bisoli
D. Bisoli
R. Ciervo
R. Ciervo
C. Shpendi
C. Shpendi
M. Olivieri
M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
A. Cerri
Carrarese 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
M. Bleve
G
37
N. Calabrese
🟨 72'
D
4
J. Illanes
D
6
F. Oliana
D
72
S. Zanon
↓ 76'
M
77
G. Parlanti
↓ 46' 🟨 24'
M
18
N. Schiavi
↓ 65'
M
70
L. Hasa
M
7
N. Belloni
M
9
F. Abiuso
↓ 83' 🟨 55'
F
92
E. Torregrossa
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
99
V. Fiorillo
G
32
M. Finotto
↑ 83'
F
28
F. Di Stefano
F
78
T. Guercio
D
25
D. Lordkipanidze
M
21
T. Rubino
↑ 46'
F
8
F. Melegoni
↑ 65'
M
44
N. Sekulov
F
17
E. Zuelli
↑ 46'
M
73
J. Rouhi
D
26
F. Ruggeri
D
13
D. Bouah
↑ 76'
M
Cesena 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Siano
G
15
A. Ciofi
D
19
G. Zaro
D
24
M. Mangraviti
↓ 85'
D
99
G. Frabotta
↓ 58'
D
14
T. Berti
M
25
D. Bisoli
M
11
R. Ciervo
↓ 58'
M
9
C. Shpendi
↓ 78'
M
32
M. Olivieri
M
7
A. Cerri
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
40
L. Ferretti
6
T. Arrigoni
M
4
M. Castagnetti
↑ 78'
M
8
G. Castrovilli
↑ 58'
M
22
G. Vrioni
↑ 85'
F
26
M. Piacentini
↑ 85'
D
27
T. Corazza
↑ 58'
D
18
M. Guidi
77
F. Tosku
F
10
S. Bastoni
M
70
M. Francesconi
M
23
V. Magni
D
Last matches: Carrarese
08.05.26
Ser
Carrarese
Virtus Entella
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Frosinone
0
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Pescara
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Reggiana
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Spezia
3
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Bari
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Sampdoria
2
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Palermo
0
1
L
04.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Catanzaro
3
3
D
01.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Mantova
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Monza
0
1
L
14.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Modena
0
2
L
10.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Padova
0
1
L
07.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Sudtirol
0
0
D
31.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Venezia
1
2
L
23.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Empoli
3
0
W
17.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Avellino
2
1
W
10.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Bari
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Carrarese
Mantova
0
0
D
Last matches: Cesena
08.05.26
Ser
Cesena
Padova
3
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Palermo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
3
1
W
17.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
0
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
2
2
D
07.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Modena
0
0
D
03.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Monza
1
3
L
28.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
0
4
L
10.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Virtus Entella
1
3
L
06.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
1
3
L
24.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Bari
1
2
L
17.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Reggiana
2
1
W
10.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
0
2
L
H2H: Carrarese vs Cesena
01.05.26
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
0
0
D
28.10.25
H2H
Cesena
Carrarese
2
1
L
29.12.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
2
0
W
18.08.24
H2H
Cesena
Carrarese
2
1
L
05.03.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
3
2
W
30.10.23
H2H
Cesena
Carrarese
2
1
L
23.12.22
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D
04.09.22
H2H
Cesena
Carrarese
1
2
W
14.04.22
H2H
Cesena
Carrarese
6
0
L
12.12.21
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D
Last matches: Carrarese
19.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Pescara
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ser
Carrarese
Spezia
3
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Sampdoria
2
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Palermo
0
1
L
04.03.26
Ser
Carrarese
Catanzaro
3
3
D
21.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Monza
0
1
L
07.02.26
Ser
Carrarese
Sudtirol
0
0
D
23.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Empoli
3
0
W
10.01.26
Ser
Carrarese
Bari
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Carrarese
Mantova
0
0
D
14.12.25
Ser
Carrarese
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
22.11.25
Ser
Carrarese
Reggiana
0
0
D
01.11.25
Ser
Carrarese
Frosinone
0
2
L
25.10.25
Ser
Carrarese
Venezia
3
2
W
05.10.25
Ser
Carrarese
Juve Stabia
3
0
W
01.10.25
Ser
Carrarese
Modena
0
0
D
21.09.25
Ser
Carrarese
Avellino
3
4
L
31.08.25
Ser
Carrarese
Padova
0
0
D
H2H at home: Carrarese
01.05.26
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
0
0
D
29.12.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
2
0
W
05.03.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
3
2
W
23.12.22
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D
12.12.21
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D
Last matches: Cesena
18.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Palermo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Cesena
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Mantova
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Cesena
Modena
0
0
D
28.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Empoli
1
1
D
10.02.26
Ser
Cesena
Virtus Entella
1
3
L
31.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Avellino
1
3
L
17.01.26
Ser
Cesena
Reggiana
2
1
W
27.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Catanzaro
0
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
Cesena
Padova
1
1
D
23.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Monza
0
1
L
02.11.25
Ser
Cesena
Bari
0
1
L
25.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Sudtirol
1
0
W
18.10.25
Ser
Cesena
Spezia
2
1
W
30.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Frosinone
1
3
L
20.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Venezia
2
1
W
13.09.25
Ser
Cesena
Sampdoria
2
1
W
22.08.25
Ser
Cesena
Pescara
3
1
W
H2H away: Cesena
01.05.26
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
0
0
D
29.12.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
2
0
L
05.03.24
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
3
2
L
23.12.22
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D
12.12.21
H2H
Carrarese
Cesena
1
1
D