BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: B. Arleu
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🟨
54'
Ignacio
Fluminense
58'
Ignacio · Assist: K. Serna
Fluminense
🔄
59'
Kauan Toledo ↔ J. Barrera
Botafogo
🔄
59'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ Matheus Martins
Botafogo
🟨
68'
N. Ferraresi
Botafogo
🔄
70'
K. Serna ↔ A. Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
70'
PH Ganso ↔ Hercules
Fluminense
🔄
70'
Alex Telles ↔ Paulinho
Botafogo
🟨
76'
Nonato
Fluminense
🟨
77'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Y. Soteldo ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Nonato ↔ J. Savarino
Fluminense
🔄
85'
R. Castillo ↔ Hulk
Fluminense
🔄
85'
J. Barrera ↔ L. E. Jales do Nascimento
Botafogo
🔄
85'
A. Montoro ↔ Danilo Pereira
Botafogo
🟨
90+2'
G. Justino
Botafogo
🟨
90+4'
Marcal
Botafogo
🟨
90+5'
Marcal
Botafogo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds 2.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
2.29
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 59.8%
Draw 6.7%
Fluminense Win 33.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.38
Fluminense1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
45 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
16
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
14
4.96
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 24 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 29 matches
Botafogo Statistic Fluminense
9 Wins 13
6 Draws 9
9 Losses 7
37 Goals For 45
35 Goals Against 33
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
16 BTTS Yes 20
19 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
4.96 Shots On Goal 5.59
12.88 Total Shots 15.11
3.92 Corners 5.15
49.3% Ball Possession 60.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fluminense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Botafogo Analysis

So far, Botafogo have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 29 points from 20 matches. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 34:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 34 points after 21 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 30:25 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 9 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Botafogo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 9, draws 1, Fluminense wins 5
Stats
Botafogo Botafogo
Fluminense Fluminense
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
5
7 Corner Kicks 7
16 Fouls 19
0 Offsides 1
41% Ball Possession 59%
20 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Goal 4
7 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 5
9 Shots insidebox 11
11 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 6
324 Total passes 471
273 Passes accurate 409
1.22 expected_goals 0.94
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Botafogo
Formation
Fluminense
Warleson
Warleson
Vitinho
Vitinho
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi
Alex Telles
Alex Telles
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina
Danilo Santos
Danilo Santos
Lucas Villalba
Lucas Villalba
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral
Fábio
Fábio
Samuel Xavier
Samuel Xavier
Ignácio
Ignácio
Jemmes
Jemmes
Renê
Renê
Otávio
Otávio
Nonato
Nonato
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo
Ganso
Ganso
Kevin Serna
🎯
Kevin Serna
Rodrigo Castillo
Rodrigo Castillo
Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
17
Warleson
G
2
Vitinho
D
34
Gabriel Justino
🟨 90+2'
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
🟨 68'
D
13
Alex Telles
⚽ 44' ↓ 70'
D
6
Cristian Medina
M
8
Danilo Santos
M
77
Lucas Villalba
↓ 59'
M
10
Álvaro Montoro
↓ 85'
M
59
Kauan Toledo
↓ 59'
M
19
Arthur Cabral
F
Substitutes
14
Jordan Barrera
↑ 59' ↓ 85'
M
11
Matheus Martins
↑ 59'
F
29
Paulinho
↑ 70'
D
9
Danilo
↑ 85'
F
79
Lucas Emanuel
↑ 85'
F
12
Gabriel Batista
G
33
Lucas Monzón
D
4
Mateo Ponte
D
21
Marçal
🟨 90+4' 🟨 90+5'
D
88
Edenilson
M
91
Domingos Andrade
M
37
Kadir Barría
F
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Fábio
G
2
Samuel Xavier
🟨 77'
D
4
Ignácio
⚽ 58' 🟨 54'
D
44
Jemmes
D
6
Renê
D
94
Otávio
M
16
Nonato
↓ 79' 🟨 76'
M
30
Yeferson Soteldo
↓ 79'
M
10
Ganso
↓ 70'
M
90
Kevin Serna
🎯 58' ↓ 70'
M
19
Rodrigo Castillo
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
35
Hércules
↑ 70'
M
17
Agustín Canobbio
↑ 70'
F
32
Luciano Acosta
↑ 79'
M
11
Jefferson Savarino
↑ 79'
F
7
Hulk
↑ 85'
F
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
23
Guga
D
13
Guilherme Arana
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
8
Martinelli
M
28
Riquelme Felipe
F
14
Germán Cano
F
Last matches: Botafogo
26.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Bahia
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
18.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
05.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
29.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
1
4
L
21.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
18.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Palmeiras
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
04.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense
30.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
H2H: Botafogo vs Fluminense
12.02.26
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
0
L
01.02.26
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
28.09.25
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
2
0
L
27.04.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
0
W
30.01.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
0
1
W
11.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
W
03.03.24
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
2
4
W
08.10.23
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
0
2
W
20.05.23
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
W
29.01.23
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
0
1
W
23.10.22
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
2
2
D
26.06.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
27.03.22
H2H
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
2
W
21.03.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
Last matches: Botafogo
23.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Botafogo
Santos
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Corinthians
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Botafogo
Remo
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Internacional
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Coritiba
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Botafogo
Mirassol
3
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Botafogo
Flamengo
0
3
L
11.03.26
CON
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
Botafogo
Nacional Potosí
2
0
W
30.01.26
Ser
Botafogo
Cruzeiro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Botafogo
01.02.26
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
27.04.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
0
W
30.01.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
1
W
11.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.23
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
W
26.06.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
21.03.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
L
Last matches: Fluminense
26.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
01.02.26
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
W
27.04.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
0
L
30.01.25
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
2
1
L
11.06.24
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
L
20.05.23
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
1
0
L
26.06.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
W
21.03.22
H2H
Botafogo
Fluminense
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.43
Draw 3.28
Home 2.29
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.26
Home 2.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.75
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.29
Over 3.0 2.79
Over 3.5 3.47
Over 4.5 6.92
Under 1.5 3.55
Under 2.0 2.70
Under 2.25 2.14
Under 2.5 1.86
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 3.20
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.20
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.40
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.37
Draw 3.21
Home 2.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.98
Draw 1.98
Home 2.86
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.46
Draw 2.40
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.27
Over 1.75 1.35
Over 2.0 1.46
Over 2.25 1.77
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 2.75 2.27
Over 3.0 2.62
Over 3.25 2.89
Over 3.5 3.18
Over 3.75 3.92
Over 4.0 5.35
Over 4.25 5.74
Over 4.5 6.10
Over 5.0 9.90
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 8.10
Under 0.75 7.49
Under 1.0 6.90
Under 1.25 4.22
Under 1.5 3.18
Under 1.75 2.86
Under 2.0 2.46
Under 2.25 2.10
Under 2.5 1.84
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.41
Under 3.25 1.32
Under 3.5 1.27
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 3.10
Home 2.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 2.12
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 2.50
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.25
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 1.75 3.05
Under 2.0 2.63
Under 2.25 2.08
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 2.75 1.63
Under 3.0 1.45
Under 3.25 1.37
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 8 5 8 27:27 0 29
D W D W L
10 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 21 7 5 9 26:25 1 26
L D L L D
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 21 6 7 8 24:27 -3 25
W D L L W
15 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
16 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
17 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
18 22 5 7 10 26:36 -10 22
D L W L W
19 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
D L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B