BRAZIL SERIE A
09.08.2026 00:00
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: B. Arleu
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
44'
Alex Telles
Botafogo
🟨
54'
Ignacio
Fluminense
58'
Ignacio · Assist: K. Serna
Fluminense
🔄
59'
Kauan Toledo ↔ J. Barrera
Botafogo
🔄
60'
L. M. Villalba Jaume ↔ Matheus Martins
Botafogo
🟨
68'
N. Ferraresi
Botafogo
🔄
70'
Alex Telles ↔ Paulinho
Botafogo
🔄
70'
PH Ganso ↔ Hercules
Fluminense
🔄
70'
K. Serna ↔ A. Canobbio
Fluminense
🟨
76'
Nonato
Fluminense
🟨
77'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Y. Soteldo ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Nonato ↔ J. Savarino
Fluminense
🔄
85'
A. Montoro ↔ Danilo Pereira
Botafogo
🔄
85'
↔ L. E. Jales do Nascimento
Botafogo
🔄
85'
R. Castillo ↔ Hulk
Fluminense
🟨
90+2'
G. Justino
Botafogo
🟨
90+4'
Marcal
Botafogo
🟨
90+5'
Marcal
Botafogo

Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 59.8%
Draw 6.7%
Fluminense Win 33.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.38
Fluminense1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
37 GF / 35 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
45 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
16
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
14
4.96
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 24 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 29 matches
Botafogo Statistic Fluminense
9 Wins 13
6 Draws 9
9 Losses 7
37 Goals For 45
35 Goals Against 33
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
16 BTTS Yes 20
19 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 5
4.96 Shots On Goal 5.59
12.88 Total Shots 15.11
3.92 Corners 5.15
49.3% Ball Possession 60.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fluminense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Botafogo Analysis

So far, Botafogo have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 29 points from 20 matches. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 34:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 34 points after 21 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 30:25 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 9 times, Fluminense won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Botafogo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 9, draws 2, Fluminense wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B