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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.10.2026 22:30
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Maurício Magalhães Prado · Assist: José Manuel López
Palmeiras
🟨
9'
Gilberto
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
10'
Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
🟨
22'
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
🟨
35'
Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
🟥
43'
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
🔄
45'
João Victor Machado Cruz ↔ Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
45'
Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva ↔ jorge rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
45'
Maurício Magalhães Prado ↔ Marlon Freitas
Palmeiras
🔄
52'
Claudinho ↔ Bruno Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
57'
Leonardo Caetano Silva
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
65'
José Manuel López ↔ Jhon Arias
Palmeiras
🔄
67'
Gilberto ↔ chiqueti
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
72'
Ramon Sosa ↔ Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🔄
72'
Lucas Evangelista ↔ Emiliano Martínez
Palmeiras
🔄
87'
Leonardo Caetano Silva ↔ Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90'
Bruno Fuchs ↔ Luis Benedetti
Palmeiras

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.94
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.9%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.94 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 52.1%
Draw 5.1%
Palmeiras Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.25
Palmeiras1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
50 GF / 38 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
69 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.78
19
BTTS Yes
24
17
Over 2.5
19
5.2
Shots on Goal
5.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 32 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 41 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Palmeiras
15 Wins 24
8 Draws 12
9 Losses 5
50 Goals For 69
38 Goals Against 32
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.78
19 BTTS Yes 24
24 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 16
7 Failed To Score 5
5.2 Shots On Goal 5.34
12.87 Total Shots 16
4.97 Corners 6.02
46.9% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palmeiras.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 50 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 45:34 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (19 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Palmeiras Analysis

Placed 2 with 60 points from 29 outings, Palmeiras continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 48:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. López (8 goals), Maurício (6 goals), Vitor Roque (5 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), J. López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 3 times, Palmeiras won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:21 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 4, Palmeiras 4
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 3, draws 4, Palmeiras wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
2 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
6 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
7 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B