Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
69.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
26.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.8%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
76%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Arouca
Tondela
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Arouca
33 matches
Tondela
33 matches
| Arouca | Statistic | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 6 |
| 6 | Draws | 10 |
| 16 | Losses | 17 |
| 44 | Goals For | 26 |
| 63 | Goals Against | 52 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.79 |
| 1.91 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
| 18 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 26 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 22 | Over 2.5 | 16 |
| 16 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 18 |
| 3.55 | Shots On Goal | 3.42 |
| 10.52 | Total Shots | 10.55 |
| 3.67 | Corners | 3.91 |
| 50.1% | Ball Possession | 43.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tondela. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
So far, Arouca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 39 points from 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, while the 44:63 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (8 goals), H. Lee (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Esgaio (4 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), N. Djouahra (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 28 points from 33 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 26:52 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (3 goals), Rony Lopes (3 goals), with creative support from Pedro Henryque (2 assists), Rony Lopes (2 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 4 times, Tondela won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:10 from Arouca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.
Arouca
4
2
8
3
4
6
Lineups
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Alverca
Arouca
Estrela
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
Sporting CP
Arouca
AVS
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Santa Clara
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
Famalicao
Tondela
SC Braga
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Nacional
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Estrela
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Sporting CP
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Alverca
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
AVS
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Famalicao
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
SC Braga