PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
16.05.2026 17:00
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Referee: A. Nobre
Arouca
Match Timeline
Tondela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
T. Fukui
Arouca
🟨
39'
Omar Fayed
Arouca
🟨
41'
Bas Kuipers
Arouca
🟨
41'
Cicero
Tondela
🔄
59'
O. Fayed ↔ D. Monteiro
Arouca
🔄
61'
Cicero ↔ H. Tavares
Tondela
🔄
63'
I. Barbero ↔ D. Nandin
Arouca
🔄
63'
N. Djouahra ↔ H. Lee
Arouca
65'
Rony Lopes · Assist: M. Aiko
Tondela
🔄
73'
M. Aiko ↔ B. Kimpioka
Tondela
🔄
73'
H. Felix ↔ J. Hodge
Tondela
77'
A. Trezza · Assist: Tiago Esgaio
Arouca
🔄
78'
P. Gozalbez ↔ Pedro Santos
Arouca
🔄
78'
T. Fukui ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🟨
81'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🔄
81'
R. Conceicao ↔ A. van der Heide
Tondela
🔄
82'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ J. Afonso
Tondela
85'
H. Lee · Assist: D. Nandin
Arouca

Arouca vs Tondela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arouca Win 69.9%
Draw 0%
Tondela Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca1.43
Tondela1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arouca Arouca
WWDLW
44 GF / 63 GA
Tondela Tondela
WLDWL
26 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.79
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
18
BTTS Yes
11
22
Over 2.5
16
3.55
Shots on Goal
3.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arouca Arouca 33 matches
Tondela Tondela 33 matches
Arouca Statistic Tondela
11 Wins 6
6 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
44 Goals For 26
63 Goals Against 52
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
18 BTTS Yes 11
26 Over 1.5 22
22 Over 2.5 16
16 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 18
3.55 Shots On Goal 3.42
10.52 Total Shots 10.55
3.67 Corners 3.91
50.1% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tondela. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Arouca Analysis

So far, Arouca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 39 points from 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 16 losses, while the 44:63 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (8 goals), H. Lee (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Esgaio (4 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), N. Djouahra (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tondela Analysis

With 28 points from 33 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 26:52 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (3 goals), Rony Lopes (3 goals), with creative support from Pedro Henryque (2 assists), Rony Lopes (2 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 4 times, Tondela won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:10 from Arouca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Arouca 4-2-3-1 / Tondela 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arouca wins 4, draws 2, Tondela wins 2

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2