SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
UD Almeria Stadium
Referee: Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain
Almeria
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
46'
Dion Lopy
Almeria
🟨
50'
Carlos Dotor
Malaga
🔄
53'
D. Murillo ↔ A. Nino
Malaga
🔄
59'
N. Melamed ↔ Leo Baptistao
Almeria
65'
Chupe · Assist: J. Munoz
Malaga
🟨
66'
Chupete
Malaga
71'
D. Larrubia · Assist: Chupe
Malaga
🔄
73'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Thalys
Almeria
🔄
73'
D. Chirino ↔ M. Luna
Almeria
🔄
73'
A. Munoz ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
76'
Leo Baptistao · Assist: A. Embarba
Almeria
🔄
79'
D. Lorenzo ↔ R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🔄
79'
J. Munoz ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
🔄
87'
D. Lopy ↔ A. Puigmal
Almeria
🔄
87'
Chupe ↔ D. Brasanac
Malaga
🟥
90+4'
Thalys
Almeria
🟨
90+9'
Aarón Ochoa
Malaga
🟨
90+4'
Aarón Ochoa
Malaga
🟥
90+9'
Aarón Ochoa
Malaga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds 1.30
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
1.30
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
1.29
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 41.1%
Draw 16.4%
Malaga Win 42.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.6
Malaga1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
88 GF / 68 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
81 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
33
BTTS Yes
29
32
Over 2.5
27
5.41
Shots on Goal
5.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 47 matches
Malaga Malaga 47 matches
Almeria Statistic Malaga
24 Wins 23
10 Draws 12
13 Losses 12
88 Goals For 81
68 Goals Against 56
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
33 BTTS Yes 29
39 Over 1.5 36
32 Over 2.5 27
19 Over 3.5 14
11 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 7
5.41 Shots On Goal 5.21
14.96 Total Shots 13.36
4.59 Corners 4.06
51.1% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Almeria hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-2, so Malaga now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Malaga controlled more possession in the first leg (54% against 46%). Almeria were also more accurate in attack, recording 6 shots on target to 4. Malaga circulated the ball more often, making 470 passes to 400 and completing 387. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Malaga. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Almeria Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Almeria arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 74 points after 42 matches. With 22 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses plus a goal ratio of 81:63, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on S. Arribas (26 goals), A. Embarba (16 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (10 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 15 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Malaga Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Malaga arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 73 points after 42 matches. The return of 21 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 75:52 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Chupe (25 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (11 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (5 assists), R. Rodriguez (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 7 times, Malaga won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:12 from Almeria's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Malaga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Almeria wins 7, draws 5, Malaga wins 3
Stats
Almeria Almeria
Malaga Malaga
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
7 Corner Kicks 7
10 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 0
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 4
8 Shots insidebox 10
5 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
375 Total passes 414
310 Passes accurate 329
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Almeria
Formation
Malaga
A. Fernandez
A. Fernandez
D. Chirino
D. Chirino
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely
F. Bonini
F. Bonini
A. Munoz
A. Munoz
S. Dzodic
S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
D. Lopy
A. Embarba
🎯
A. Embarba
S. Arribas
S. Arribas
N. Melamed
N. Melamed
M. de la Fuente
M. de la Fuente
A. Herrero
A. Herrero
C. Puga
C. Puga
D. Murillo
D. Murillo
J. Montero
J. Montero
Rafita
Rafita
C. Dotor
C. Dotor
I. Merino
I. Merino
D. Larrubia
D. Larrubia
D. Lorenzo
D. Lorenzo
J. Munoz
🎯
J. Munoz
Chupe
🎯
Chupe
Almeria 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Fernandez
G
22
D. Chirino
↓ 73'
D
5
Rodrigo Ely
D
18
F. Bonini
D
3
A. Munoz
↓ 73'
D
29
S. Dzodic
M
17
D. Lopy
↓ 87' 🟨 46'
M
23
A. Embarba
🎯 76'
M
11
S. Arribas
M
10
N. Melamed
↓ 59'
M
24
M. de la Fuente
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
13
F. Martinez
G
21
Chumi
D
2
A. Puigmal
↑ 87'
M
9
Thalys
↑ 73' 🟥 90+4'
F
16
M. Luna
↑ 73'
D
12
Leo Baptistao
⚽ 76' ↑ 59'
F
4
N. Monte
D
14
I. Baba
M
7
J. Morcillo
↑ 73'
F
19
P. Soko
F
20
A. Centelles
D
8
Gui Guedes
M
Malaga 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Herrero
G
3
C. Puga
D
16
D. Murillo
↓ 53'
D
20
J. Montero
D
31
Rafita
D
12
C. Dotor
🟨 50'
M
23
I. Merino
M
10
D. Larrubia
⚽ 71'
M
22
D. Lorenzo
↓ 79'
M
11
J. Munoz
🎯 65' ↓ 79'
M
9
Chupe
⚽ 65' 🎯 71' ↓ 87' 🟨 66'
F
Substitutes
13
C. Lopez
G
5
D. Brasanac
↑ 87'
M
17
E. Jauregi
F
24
J. Lobete
F
21
A. Nino
↑ 53'
F
37
R. Rodriguez
↑ 79'
M
18
D. Sanchez
D
6
R. Enriquez
M
7
H. Abaida
F
36
A. Recio
D
2
J. Gabilondo
D
35
A. Ochoa
↑ 79' 🟨 90+9' 🟨 90+4' 🟥 90+9'
M
Last matches: Almeria
14.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
06.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
1
D
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
1
3
L
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
09.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
0
0
D
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
26.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
12.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Racing Santander
1
5
L
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
02.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
0
2
L
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
20.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
3
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
0
2
L
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
27.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Albacete
1
1
D
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
Last matches: Malaga
14.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
09.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
H2H: Almeria vs Malaga
14.06.26
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
21.12.25
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
L
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
27.07.24
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
L
12.02.22
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
W
31.07.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
1
1
D
30.03.21
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
3
W
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
W
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
07.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Almeria
0
1
W
Last matches: Almeria
09.06.26
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
3
2
W
31.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Valladolid
1
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Las Palmas
1
2
L
04.05.26
Seg
Almeria
Mirandes
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
05.04.26
Seg
Almeria
Leganes
2
1
W
29.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
5
1
W
09.03.26
Seg
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
3
0
W
21.02.26
Seg
Almeria
Cordoba
2
1
W
13.02.26
Seg
Almeria
FC Andorra
3
2
W
01.02.26
Seg
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
4
2
W
17.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
1
2
L
03.01.26
Seg
Almeria
Granada CF
3
2
W
14.12.25
Seg
Almeria
Burgos
1
2
L
29.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Huesca
0
0
D
16.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Cadiz
3
0
W
01.11.25
Seg
Almeria
Eibar
3
1
W
26.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Castellón
1
0
W
11.10.25
Seg
Almeria
Zaragoza
4
2
W
20.09.25
Seg
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
H2H at home: Almeria
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
W
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
L
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
L
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
W
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
W
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
Last matches: Malaga
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
02.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Mirandes
1
2
L
18.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Cordoba
1
0
W
04.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
3
1
W
14.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
3
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Malaga
CF Talavera
1
2
L
29.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
1
1
D
17.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
0
1
L
02.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
1
2
L
30.10.25
Cop
Malaga
Estepona
3
1
W
19.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
2
L
H2H away: Malaga
19.04.26
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
2
L
26.07.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
2
D
27.07.23
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
1
W
04.09.21
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
2
0
L
13.12.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
3
1
L
20.07.20
H2H
Almeria
Malaga
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 3.32
Home 2.18
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.23
Draw 2.25
Home 2.79
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 2.0 1.51
Over 2.25 1.76
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.29
Over 3.0 2.74
Over 3.25 2.68
Over 3.5 3.37
Over 4.5 6.81
Under 1.5 3.53
Under 2.0 2.69
Under 2.25 2.14
Under 2.5 1.87
Under 2.75 1.68
Under 3.0 1.49
Under 3.25 1.48
Under 3.5 1.34
Under 4.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 3.30
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.40
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 3.38
Home 2.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.15
Draw 2.07
Home 2.76
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 2.54
Home 2.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.32
Over 2.0 1.40
Over 2.25 1.66
Over 2.5 1.88
Over 2.75 2.10
Over 3.0 2.39
Over 3.25 2.67
Over 3.5 2.96
Over 3.75 3.54
Over 4.0 4.80
Over 4.25 5.09
Over 4.5 5.40
Over 4.75 6.44
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 12.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 0.75 8.85
Under 1.0 8.00
Under 1.25 4.78
Under 1.5 3.56
Under 1.75 3.16
Under 2.0 2.77
Under 2.25 2.28
Under 2.5 1.96
Under 2.75 1.76
Under 3.0 1.52
Under 3.25 1.40
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 3.75 1.23
Under 4.0 1.12
Under 4.25 1.10
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 4.75 1.05
Under 5.0 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.40
Home 2.06
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.28
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 2.60
Home 2.43
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.23
Over 2.0 1.38
Over 2.25 1.61
Over 2.5 1.80
Over 2.75 2.04
Over 3.0 2.43
Over 3.25 2.75
Over 3.5 3.05
Over 3.75 3.25
Over 4.0 4.25
Over 4.25 4.60
Over 4.5 6.10
Over 4.75 6.00
Over 5.0 8.50
Over 5.5 10.00
Under 0.5 10.50
Under 1.5 3.70
Under 2.0 2.90
Under 2.25 2.28
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 2.75 1.73
Under 3.0 1.52
Under 3.25 1.42
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 3.75 1.28
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.09
Under 4.75 1.09
Under 5.0 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation