Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
83.6%
|
1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
1.80 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
2.03 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
88.5%
|
1.29 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.50 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.00 |
Almeria
Malaga
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Almeria
47 matches
Malaga
47 matches
| Almeria | Statistic | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wins | 23 |
| 10 | Draws | 12 |
| 13 | Losses | 12 |
| 88 | Goals For | 81 |
| 68 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.87 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.72 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 33 | BTTS Yes | 29 |
| 39 | Over 1.5 | 36 |
| 32 | Over 2.5 | 27 |
| 19 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 13 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 5.41 | Shots On Goal | 5.21 |
| 14.96 | Total Shots | 13.36 |
| 4.59 | Corners | 4.06 |
| 51.1% | Ball Possession | 50% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Almeria hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-2, so Malaga now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Malaga controlled more possession in the first leg (54% against 46%). Almeria were also more accurate in attack, recording 6 shots on target to 4. Malaga circulated the ball more often, making 470 passes to 400 and completing 387. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Malaga. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.
Ahead of this knockout test, Almeria arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 74 points after 42 matches. With 22 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses plus a goal ratio of 81:63, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on S. Arribas (26 goals), A. Embarba (16 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (10 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 15 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Ahead of this knockout test, Malaga arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 73 points after 42 matches. The return of 21 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 75:52 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Chupe (25 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (11 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (5 assists), R. Rodriguez (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 7 times, Malaga won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:12 from Almeria's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.
Almeria
6
5
6
3
1
4
Lineups
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Valladolid
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
Las Palmas
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Racing Santander
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Albacete
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
FC Andorra
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
Racing Santander
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Eibar
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Leganes
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Huesca
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Granada CF
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Valladolid
Almeria
Las Palmas
Almeria
Mirandes
Almeria
Malaga
Almeria
Leganes
Almeria
Real Sociedad II
Almeria
Cultural Leonesa
Almeria
Cordoba
Almeria
FC Andorra
Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Almeria
Granada CF
Almeria
Burgos
Almeria
Huesca
Almeria
Cadiz
Almeria
Eibar
Almeria
Castellón
Almeria
Zaragoza
Almeria
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Las Palmas
Malaga
Zaragoza
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
Malaga
Eibar
Malaga
Almeria
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
Malaga
FC Andorra
Malaga
Cadiz
Malaga
Granada CF
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
Malaga
Mirandes
Malaga
Cordoba
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
Albacete
Malaga
CF Talavera
Malaga
Valladolid
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
Malaga
Castellón
Malaga
Estepona
Malaga
Leganes
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 90:61 | 29 | 82 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 65:44 | 21 | 77 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Almeria
Home
|
42 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 81:63 | 18 | 74 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
| 4 |
Malaga
Away
|
42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 75:52 | 23 | 73 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
| 5 | 42 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 57:40 | 17 | 73 |
D
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 70:51 | 19 | 72 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 48:33 | 15 | 72 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 52:40 | 12 | 67 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 60:54 | 6 | 61 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 57:61 | -4 | 61 |
D
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 51:63 | -12 | 61 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 12 | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 56:55 | 1 | 59 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 62:54 | 8 | 58 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 50:56 | -6 | 48 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 52:61 | -9 | 47 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 43:51 | -8 | 46 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 44:57 | -13 | 46 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 41:61 | -20 | 43 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 47:69 | -22 | 40 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 41:63 | -22 | 38 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 39:68 | -29 | 37 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 22 | 42 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 35:59 | -24 | 36 |
L
D
L
L
L
|