COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
10.08.2026 01:15
Olímpico Pascual Guerrero
Referee: Santiago Bismarks
America de Cali
Match Timeline
Atletico Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Cristian Tovar
America de Cali
46'
Y. Guzman · Assist: R. Carrascal
America de Cali
🟨
47'
Jean Fernandes
America de Cali
🔄
61'
E. Tortolero ↔ J. Lucumi
America de Cali
🔄
64'
Y. A. Perlaza Perea ↔ S. Velasquez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
64'
M. Uribe ↔ J. Rengifo
Atletico Nacional
🟨
68'
Simon Garcia
Atletico Nacional
🔄
72'
T. Angel ↔ A. Ramos
America de Cali
🔄
72'
A. Sarmiento ↔ C. Arango
Atletico Nacional
🟨
78'
Rafael Carrascal
America de Cali
🟨
78'
Alfredo Morelos
Atletico Nacional
🟨
82'
Marlos Moreno
Atletico Nacional
🔄
84'
Y. Quintero ↔ B. Cordoba
America de Cali
🔄
84'
R. Carrascal ↔ J. Cavadia
America de Cali
🟨
90+7'
Milton Casco
Atletico Nacional
VAR
90+5'
Cristian Arango
Atletico Nacional
🔄
90+2'
E. Cardona ↔ N. Rodriguez
Atletico Nacional

America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
America de Cali Win 56.2%
Draw 3.6%
Atletico Nacional Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
America de Cali1.25
Atletico Nacional1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
America de Cali America de Cali
WWDLW
40 GF / 23 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
54 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.86
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
10
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
20
4.63
Shots on Goal
6.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America de Cali America de Cali 28 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 29 matches
America de Cali Statistic Atletico Nacional
15 Wins 19
5 Draws 1
8 Losses 9
40 Goals For 54
23 Goals Against 28
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
10 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 20
3 Over 3.5 6
14 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 8
4.63 Shots On Goal 6.12
13.58 Total Shots 16.31
3.71 Corners 4.88
55.2% Ball Possession 56.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Nacional. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with America de Cali expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Atletico Nacional in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Nacional having the stronger overall control. Atletico Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

America de Cali Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 33 points from 19 games, America de Cali bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a 25:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Yeison Guzmán (3 goals), Dany Rosero (2 goals), Kevin Angulo (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Carrascal (2 assists), Tomás Ángel (2 assists), Yeison Guzmán (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 19 outings. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Alfredo Morelos (1 goals), Andrés Sarmiento (1 goals), Marlos Moreno (1 goals), with creative support from Alfredo Morelos (1 assists), Matheus Uribe (1 assists), Andrés Román (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, America de Cali won 4 times, Atletico Nacional won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:22 from America de Cali's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: America de Cali 4-4-2 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: America de Cali wins 4, draws 3, Atletico Nacional wins 8

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification