Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
74.1%
|
1.88 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
80.1%
|
1.91 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.1%
|
2.03 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.20 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.75 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Cruzeiro
38 matches
Sao Paulo
28 matches
| Cruzeiro | Statistic | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wins | 10 |
| 9 | Draws | 6 |
| 12 | Losses | 12 |
| 55 | Goals For | 33 |
| 49 | Goals Against | 32 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.14 |
| 25 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 31 | Over 1.5 | 21 |
| 23 | Over 2.5 | 11 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.56 | Shots On Goal | 4.21 |
| 14 | Total Shots | 13.14 |
| 4.69 | Corners | 6.82 |
| 54.4% | Ball Possession | 53.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sao Paulo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sao Paulo in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.
So far, Cruzeiro have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 45 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 42:40 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Matheus Pereira (8 goals), Kaio Jorge (7 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (4 assists), K. Arroyo (4 assists), Fágner (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Romero, Kenji, L. Sinisterra unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
So far, Sao Paulo have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 36 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 33:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano (8 goals), J. Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Buta, D. Duarte, N. Bosshardt unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 4 times, Sao Paulo won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57:25 | 32 | 61 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45:34 | 11 | 50 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 4 |
Cruzeiro
Home
|
29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44:40 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
| 5 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39:34 | 5 | 44 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 42 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 1 | 37 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 |
Sao Paulo
Away
|
29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33:34 | -1 | 36 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
| 12 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 36 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42:47 | -5 | 35 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 34 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 24 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | -28 | 18 |
L
D
L
W
L
|