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BRAZIL › SERIE A
08.10.2026 00:30
Estádio Mineirão
Referee: Wilton Sampaio
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Wendell
Sao Paulo
🟨
24'
Gabriel Rojas
Cruzeiro
⚽
44'
Kaio Jorge · Assist: Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
45'
Lucas Romer ↔ Zé Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
45'
Jose Monteiro ↔ Aldemir Ferreira
Sao Paulo
⚽
57'
Zé Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
58'
Gabriel Rojas ↔ Matías Viña
Cruzeiro
🔄
63'
Aldemir Ferreira ↔ Victor Sá
Sao Paulo
🔄
64'
Pablo Maia ↔ Pedro Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
64'
Marcos Antonio ↔ Newton
Sao Paulo
🔄
68'
Bruno Rodrigues ↔ Keny arroyo
Cruzeiro
🟨
72'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
Damian Bobadilla ↔ Djhordney Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
85'
Kaio Jorge ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🔄
85'
Gerson ↔ Luciano Rodríguez
Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds 1.88
BTTS
Yes
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.1%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
1.88 ▥
BTTS Yes
80.1%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.1%
2.03 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 74.1%
Draw 11.3%
Sao Paulo Win 14.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.33
Sao Paulo1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
55 GF / 49 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
33 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
25
BTTS Yes
16
23
Over 2.5
11
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 38 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 28 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Sao Paulo
17 Wins 10
9 Draws 6
12 Losses 12
55 Goals For 33
49 Goals Against 32
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
25 BTTS Yes 16
31 Over 1.5 21
23 Over 2.5 11
11 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.21
14 Total Shots 13.14
4.69 Corners 6.82
54.4% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sao Paulo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sao Paulo in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cruzeiro Analysis

So far, Cruzeiro have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 45 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 42:40 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Matheus Pereira (8 goals), Kaio Jorge (7 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Matheus Pereira (4 assists), K. Arroyo (4 assists), Fágner (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Romero, Kenji, L. Sinisterra unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Sao Paulo Analysis

So far, Sao Paulo have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 36 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 33:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano (8 goals), J. Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Buta, D. Duarte, N. Bosshardt unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 4 times, Sao Paulo won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 6, Sao Paulo 8
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 4, draws 3, Sao Paulo wins 8

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
4 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
5 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
6 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B