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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
09.10.2026 11:35
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium
Referee: Shan Dan'ao, China
Qingdao Jonoon
Match Timeline
Beijing Guoan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
F. Abreu
Beijing Guoan
⚽
32'
Serginho
Beijing Guoan
🟨
40'
Uroš Spajić
Beijing Guoan
VAR
58'
Lin Liangming
Beijing Guoan
⚽
62'
F. Abreu · Assist: Zhang Yuning
Beijing Guoan
🔄
65'
Bai Yang ↔ Li Lei
Beijing Guoan
🔄
65'
Lin Liangming ↔ Zhang Xizhe
Beijing Guoan
🔄
65'
F. Abreu ↔ Yang Liyu
Beijing Guoan
🔄
68'
L. Tufegdzic ↔ C. Strandberg
Qingdao Jonoon
🟨
71'
Ruicong Gong
Qingdao Jonoon
🔄
71'
Yue Tze-Nam ↔ Wang Gang
Beijing Guoan
🔄
78'
Wei Zixian ↔ Li Hailong
Qingdao Jonoon
🔄
78'
Liu Xinyu ↔ Liu Guobao
Qingdao Jonoon
🔄
78'
Serginho ↔ Chi Zhongguo
Beijing Guoan
🟨
81'
Gang Wang
Beijing Guoan
🔄
83'
Jin Yangyang ↔ Liu Jiashen
Qingdao Jonoon
🔄
83'
Jin Yonghao ↔ Yang Cong
Qingdao Jonoon
VAR
89'
Cong Yang
Qingdao Jonoon
🟨
90+5'
Suda Li
Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Qingdao Jonoon Win 19.4%
Draw 4.5%
Beijing Guoan Win 76.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Qingdao Jonoon1.29
Beijing Guoan1.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon
WWDLW
34 GF / 53 GA
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan
WLDWL
49 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.88
2.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
18
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
16
3.88
Shots on Goal
5.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon 26 matches
Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 26 matches
Qingdao Jonoon Statistic Beijing Guoan
6 Wins 11
3 Draws 10
17 Losses 5
34 Goals For 49
53 Goals Against 33
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
2.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
18 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 2
3.88 Shots On Goal 5.42
12.88 Total Shots 15.15
4.31 Corners 5.88
45% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Beijing Guoan's more proactive style and Qingdao Jonoon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Beijing Guoan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 38 points while Qingdao Jonoon sit 16 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Qingdao Jonoon have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Beijing Guoan. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Qingdao Jonoon Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 14 points from 26 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 34:53 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Y. Yeboah (7 goals), Malcom Edjouma (6 goals), Carlos Strandberg (4 goals), with creative support from Song Wenjie (4 assists), Y. Yeboah (3 assists), Lin Chuangyi (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Beijing Guoan Analysis

Placed 3 with 38 points from 26 outings, Beijing Guoan continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 49:33 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Zhang Yuning (12 goals), Fabio Abreu (8 goals), Dawhan (5 goals), with creative support from Zhang Yuning (5 assists), Fabio Abreu (5 assists), Serginho (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Qingdao Jonoon won 2 times, Beijing Guoan won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:17 from Qingdao Jonoon's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Qingdao Jonoon 4-4-2 / Beijing Guoan 4-4-2
H2H summary: Qingdao Jonoon wins 2, draws 2, Beijing Guoan wins 3

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 15 7 6 51:34 17 52
L L D W L
2 28 14 4 10 45:43 2 46
W W W D W
3 28 13 10 5 53:33 20 44
W W D D D
4 28 14 5 9 52:44 8 41
W D D W L
5 28 12 8 8 47:35 12 39
W W D W W
6 28 11 6 11 56:59 -3 39
D L W L D
7 28 8 14 6 31:37 -6 38
L L D D W
8 28 14 5 9 62:48 14 37
W W W L W
9 28 7 12 9 29:34 -5 33
D D L D L
10 28 11 8 9 38:32 6 31
W W W W D
11 28 10 6 12 47:52 -5 31
L L W L W
12 28 8 5 15 37:50 -13 29
L D D L D
13 28 8 5 15 39:48 -9 29
W D L L L
14 28 8 10 10 35:38 -3 28
L D D D D
15 28 5 12 11 41:50 -9 22
L D L D D
16 28 6 3 19 34:60 -26 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation