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21.10.2026 10:00
Ajinomoto Stadium
Referee: Koki Nagamine, Japan
FC Tokyo
Match Timeline
Kashiwa Reysol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Hayato Inamura
FC Tokyo
🟨
44'
Yudai Konishi
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
46'
S. Toshima ↔ W. Harada
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
46'
H. Yamauchi ↔ Y. Koizumi
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
46'
K. Yuruki ↔ K. Endo
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
62'
K. Bangnagande ↔ K. Tawaratsumida
FC Tokyo
🔄
65'
S. Fujio ↔ Y. Segawa
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
72'
K. Sato ↔ F. Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
72'
Marcelo Ryan ↔ T. Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🟨
75'
Hirokazu Ishihara
FC Tokyo
🔄
78'
T. Kubo ↔ M. Hosoya
Kashiwa Reysol
🟨
79'
Yoshio Koizumi
Kashiwa Reysol
🟨
80'
Alexander Scholz
FC Tokyo
🟨
85'
Wataru Harada
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
86'
S. Anzai ↔ R. Omori
FC Tokyo
🔄
87'
M. Nagakura ↔ D. Gomez
FC Tokyo
🟨
90+4'
Keita Endo
Kashiwa Reysol

FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Tokyo Win 42.4%
Draw 11.3%
Kashiwa Reysol Win 46.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Tokyo1.94
Kashiwa Reysol1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
W W W W W
12 GF / 0 GA
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol
L W W W L
12 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
2.1
Average Goals Scored
2.2
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
3
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
7
5.1
Shots on Goal
5.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 10 matches
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 10 matches
FC Tokyo Statistic Kashiwa Reysol
7 Wins 7
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 3
21 Goals For 22
8 Goals Against 17
2.1 Avg Goals Scored 2.2
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
3 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 2
5.1 Shots On Goal 5.2
15.9 Total Shots 15.4
5.3 Corners 5.7
54.4% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Tokyo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Kashiwa Reysol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kashiwa Reysol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. FC Tokyo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kashiwa Reysol. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 20 points after 9 outings. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:8, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Nagakura (5 goals), S. Anzai (3 goals), Marcelo Ryan (2 goals), with creative support from M. Nagakura (2 assists), K. Sato (2 assists), Marcelo Ryan (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Kashiwa Reysol Analysis

Kashiwa Reysol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 21 points after 9 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 21:14, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Y. Segawa (5 goals), Y. Koizumi (2 goals), T. Kubo (2 goals), with creative support from Masa (4 assists), Y. Koizumi (3 assists), Y. Segawa (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Tokyo won 5 times, Kashiwa Reysol won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:21 from FC Tokyo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: FC Tokyo 4-4-2 / Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: FC Tokyo wins 5, draws 4, Kashiwa Reysol wins 6

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 33:8 25 33
W W W D W
2 14 10 1 3 31:20 11 31
W W W D L
3 14 9 3 2 32:10 22 30
D W W L W
4 14 8 5 1 30:10 20 29
D D D W W
5 14 8 3 3 23:14 9 27
D W D L W
6 14 7 2 5 29:24 5 23
L W L D W
7 14 5 7 2 21:15 6 22
D W D D D
8 14 6 4 4 28:24 4 22
L L W W W
9 14 7 1 6 23:29 -6 22
D L W W W
10 14 5 2 7 16:22 -6 17
D L L W L
11 14 4 5 5 16:25 -9 17
W L D D L
12 14 4 4 6 19:23 -4 16
W W D D L
13 14 4 2 8 15:23 -8 14
L L D D W
14 14 3 5 6 12:22 -10 14
W W W D L
15 14 4 2 8 10:23 -13 14
L L L L D
16 14 3 4 7 17:22 -5 13
D L L W L
17 14 3 4 7 16:24 -8 13
W W D L D
18 14 2 6 6 16:24 -8 12
L D D W D
19 14 2 3 9 12:26 -14 9
L L L L L
20 14 2 2 10 14:25 -11 8
D L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League