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BRAZIL › SERIE A
08.10.2026 23:00
Arena da Baixada
Referee: Ramon Abatti
Atletico Paranaense
Match Timeline
Atletico-MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Kerwin Vargas · Assist: Gilberto
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
27'
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
Atletico-MG
🔄
38'
Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos ↔ Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
Atletico-MG
🔄
61'
Gilberto ↔ Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
61'
João Victor Machado Cruz ↔ Leonardo Caetano Silva
Atletico Paranaense
VAR
64'
Claudinho
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
67'
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
🔄
67'
Maycon de Andrade Barberan ↔ Tomás Pérez
Atletico-MG
🔄
68'
Mamady Cisse ↔ Kevin Castaño
Atletico-MG
VAR
72'
Tomás Pérez
Atletico-MG
🟥
73'
Tomás Pérez
Atletico-MG
🟨
74'
Kevin Castaño
Atletico-MG
🔄
76'
Reinier Jesus Carvalho ↔ Thiago Borbas
Atletico-MG
🔄
76'
Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte ↔ Igor Gomes
Atletico-MG
🔄
81'
Luiz Gustavo ↔ Bruno Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
81'
Carlos Teran ↔ jorge rivaldo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
90'
Lucas Esquivel ↔ Gilberto Junior
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
90+3'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
⚽
90+7'
Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović · Assist: Thiago Borbas
Atletico-MG

Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds 2.13
BTTS
Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.1%
Odds 2.06
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
2.13 ▥
BTTS Yes
79.1%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.1%
2.06 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Paranaense Win 55.3%
Draw 3.6%
Atletico-MG Win 41.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Paranaense1.34
Atletico-MG1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WWDLW
44 GF / 35 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
37 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
17
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
13
4.93
Shots on Goal
4.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 30 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 28 matches
Atletico Paranaense Statistic Atletico-MG
14 Wins 12
7 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
44 Goals For 37
35 Goals Against 32
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
17 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 9
4.93 Shots On Goal 4.61
12.25 Total Shots 13.46
4.71 Corners 5
46.5% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Atletico-MG seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico-MG. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 49 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 43:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (18 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Aguirre, G. Benavidez, Claudinho unavailable.

Atletico-MG Analysis

So far, Atletico-MG have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 43 points from 28 matches. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 37:32 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Cuello (5 goals), Hulk (4 goals), Reinier (4 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), T. Cuello (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Everson, Ruan Tressoldi, Vitor Hugo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, Atletico-MG won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1 / Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Paranaense 5, Atletico-MG 9
H2H summary: Atletico Paranaense wins 4, draws 1, Atletico-MG wins 10

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
4 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
5 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
6 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B