Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
55.3%
|
2.13 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
79.1%
|
1.80 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.1%
|
2.06 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.15 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.25 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.00 |
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Paranaense
30 matches
Atletico-MG
28 matches
| Atletico Paranaense | Statistic | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wins | 12 |
| 7 | Draws | 7 |
| 9 | Losses | 9 |
| 44 | Goals For | 37 |
| 35 | Goals Against | 32 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.17 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.14 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 22 | Over 1.5 | 19 |
| 15 | Over 2.5 | 13 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 4.93 | Shots On Goal | 4.61 |
| 12.25 | Total Shots | 13.46 |
| 4.71 | Corners | 5 |
| 46.5% | Ball Possession | 49.1% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Atletico-MG seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico-MG. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Paranaense expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control.
Atletico Paranaense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 49 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 43:32 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Viveros (18 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Leozinho (4 goals), with creative support from João Cruz (5 assists), G. Benavídez (5 assists), L. Esquivel (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Aguirre, G. Benavidez, Claudinho unavailable.
So far, Atletico-MG have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 43 points from 28 matches. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 37:32 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Cuello (5 goals), Hulk (4 goals), Reinier (4 goals), with creative support from Hulk (4 assists), Renan Lodi (3 assists), T. Cuello (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Everson, Ruan Tressoldi, Vitor Hugo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 4 times, Atletico-MG won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57:25 | 32 | 61 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 |
Atletico Paranaense
Home
|
29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45:34 | 11 | 50 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
| 4 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44:40 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
Away
|
29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39:34 | 5 | 44 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
| 8 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 42 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 1 | 37 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33:34 | -1 | 36 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 36 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42:47 | -5 | 35 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 34 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 24 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | -28 | 18 |
L
D
L
W
L
|