BRAZIL SERIE A
16.07.2026 22:30
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
39'
Ze Vitor ↔ T. Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
59'
C. Spinelli ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
59'
J. Rojas ↔ A. Gomez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
Rene ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
69'
Renato Kayzer · Assist: D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
73'
Adson ↔ M. Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
77'
Erick ↔ Marinho
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Jamerson ↔ E. Britez
Vitoria
🔄
78'
D. Tarzia ↔ Fabricio
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Thiago Mendes ↔ Tche Tche
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
78'
N. Moreira ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama

Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.3%
-
BTTS Yes
66.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 77.3%
Draw 5%
Vasco DA Gama Win 17.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.39
Vasco DA Gama1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
21 GF / 25 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
22 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
11
4.18
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 17 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 18 matches
Vitoria Statistic Vasco DA Gama
6 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
7 Losses 8
21 Goals For 22
25 Goals Against 29
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
8 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 4
4.18 Shots On Goal 5.5
11 Total Shots 17.72
3.94 Corners 5.33
44.8% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Vitoria appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Vasco DA Gama. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria are currently 13 in the standings with 22 points from 17 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 21:25 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Rene (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (3 goals), Baralhas (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Baralhas (3 assists), Luan Candido (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Camutanga, Edu, Matheusinho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 22:29, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Thiago Mendes (4 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Cauan Barros (3 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (4 assists), Cuiabano (4 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Mateus Carvalho, Jair unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 7 times, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-3-3 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 10, Vasco DA Gama 2
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 7, draws 2, Vasco DA Gama wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B