BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Barradao
Referee: M. Delgado
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
39'
Ze Vitor ↔ T. Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
59'
C. Spinelli ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
59'
J. Rojas ↔ A. Gomez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
Rene ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria
69'
Renato Kayzer · Assist: D. Tarzia
Vitoria
🔄
73'
Adson ↔ M. Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
77'
Erick ↔ Marinho
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Jamerson ↔ E. Britez
Vitoria
🔄
78'
D. Tarzia ↔ Fabricio
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Thiago Mendes ↔ Tche Tche
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
78'
N. Moreira ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.3%
-
BTTS Yes
66.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 77.3%
Draw 5%
Vasco DA Gama Win 17.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.39
Vasco DA Gama1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
21 GF / 25 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
22 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
11
4.18
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 17 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 18 matches
Vitoria Statistic Vasco DA Gama
6 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
7 Losses 8
21 Goals For 22
25 Goals Against 29
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
8 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 4
4.18 Shots On Goal 5.5
11 Total Shots 17.72
3.94 Corners 5.33
44.8% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Vitoria appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Vasco DA Gama. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria are currently 13 in the standings with 22 points from 17 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 21:25 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Rene (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (3 goals), Baralhas (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Baralhas (3 assists), Luan Candido (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Camutanga, Edu, Matheusinho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 22:29, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Thiago Mendes (4 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Cauan Barros (3 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (4 assists), Cuiabano (4 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Mateus Carvalho, Jair unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 8 times, Vasco DA Gama won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:18 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-3-3 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vitoria 10, Vasco DA Gama 2
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 8, draws 2, Vasco DA Gama wins 5
Stats
Vitoria Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 4
8 Shots insidebox 7
6 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
385 Total passes 394
298 Passes accurate 326
0.52 expected_goals 0.77
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vitoria
Formation
Vasco DA Gama
Lucas Arcanjo
Lucas Arcanjo
Jamerson
Jamerson
Caca
Caca
Luan Candido
Luan Candido
Ramon
Ramon
Baralhas
Baralhas
Erick
Erick
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor
Emmanuel Martinez
Emmanuel Martinez
D. Tarzia
🎯
D. Tarzia
Rene
Rene
Leo Jardim
Leo Jardim
J. Rodriguez
J. Rodriguez
C. Cuesta
C. Cuesta
Robert Renan
Robert Renan
Cuiabano
Cuiabano
Cauan Barros
Cauan Barros
Thiago Mendes
Thiago Mendes
Adson
Adson
J. Rojas
J. Rojas
N. Moreira
N. Moreira
C. Spinelli
C. Spinelli
Vitoria 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Lucas Arcanjo
G
83
Jamerson
↓ 78'
D
25
Caca
D
36
Luan Candido
D
13
Ramon
D
44
Baralhas
M
33
Erick
↓ 77'
M
88
Ze Vitor
↓ 39'
M
6
Emmanuel Martinez
M
12
D. Tarzia
🎯 69' ↓ 78'
M
91
Rene
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
71
Yuri
G
11
Osvaldo
F
7
Marinho
↑ 77'
F
15
Walace
D
10
Matheuzinho
M
8
T. Pochettino
↑ 39'
M
98
Matheusinho
D
2
E. Britez
↑ 78'
D
79
Renato Kayzer
⚽ 69' ↑ 63'
F
23
Fabricio
↑ 78'
F
41
Wendell Santos
M
26
Edenilson
M
Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Leo Jardim
G
2
J. Rodriguez
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
30
Robert Renan
D
66
Cuiabano
D
88
Cauan Barros
M
23
Thiago Mendes
↓ 78'
M
28
Adson
↓ 73'
M
10
J. Rojas
↓ 59'
M
17
N. Moreira
↓ 78'
M
77
C. Spinelli
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
6
Lucas Piton
D
83
Ramon Rique
M
43
Lucas Freitas
D
8
Jair
M
96
Paulo Henrique
D
3
Tche Tche
↑ 78'
M
7
David
↑ 78'
F
20
Brenner
↑ 59'
F
18
M. Hinestroza
↑ 73'
F
11
A. Gomez
↑ 59'
F
98
JP
M
Last matches: Vitoria
30.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Palmeiras
0
4
L
26.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Remo
0
2
L
23.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Botafogo
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Santos
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Internacional
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
RB Bragantino
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Fluminense
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Coritiba
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Mirassol
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Gremio
0
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Bahia
1
1
D
11.02.26
Ser
Vitoria
Flamengo
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vitoria
Palmeiras
1
5
L
28.01.26
Ser
Vitoria
Remo
2
0
W
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H: Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama
16.07.26
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.10.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
4
3
L
10.05.25
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
12.05.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
2
1
L
11.11.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
3
W
07.08.21
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
09.09.18
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
13.05.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
2
3
W
05.11.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
1
1
D
13.07.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
4
L
16.03.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
09.03.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
1
1
D
18.09.13
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
1
2
W
01.06.13
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
W
Last matches: Vitoria
30.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Palmeiras
0
4
L
23.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Internacional
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Coritiba
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Mirassol
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Vitoria
Flamengo
1
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Vitoria
Remo
2
0
W
H2H at home: Vitoria
16.07.26
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
10.05.25
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
07.08.21
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
09.09.18
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
13.07.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
4
L
16.03.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
01.06.13
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
W
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H away: Vasco DA Gama
16.07.26
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
10.05.25
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
W
07.08.21
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
W
09.09.18
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
13.07.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
4
W
16.03.17
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
01.06.13
H2H
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
?
LIBC CL group stage
LIBC Play-offs
Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation

Missing Players

Vitoria 10 missing
-
Camutanga
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
-
Edu
Questionable Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Matheusinho
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Nathan Mendes
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Riccieli
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT
-
Caique Goncalves
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Cantalapiedra
Questionable Personal Reasons
OUT
-
Dudu
Missing Fixture Back Injury
OUT
-
Anderson
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. Ramos
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Vasco DA Gama 2 missing
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Jair
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT