Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
77.3%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
66.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
71%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
91.6%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vitoria
17 matches
Vasco DA Gama
18 matches
| Vitoria | Statistic | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 5 |
| 4 | Draws | 5 |
| 7 | Losses | 8 |
| 21 | Goals For | 22 |
| 25 | Goals Against | 29 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.22 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.61 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 15 | Over 1.5 | 14 |
| 7 | Over 2.5 | 11 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 1 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.18 | Shots On Goal | 5.5 |
| 11 | Total Shots | 17.72 |
| 3.94 | Corners | 5.33 |
| 44.8% | Ball Possession | 54.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Vitoria appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Vasco DA Gama. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.
Vitoria are currently 13 in the standings with 22 points from 17 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 21:25 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Rene (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (3 goals), Baralhas (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Baralhas (3 assists), Luan Candido (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Camutanga, Edu, Matheusinho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 22:29, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Thiago Mendes (4 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Cauan Barros (3 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (4 assists), Cuiabano (4 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Mateus Carvalho, Jair unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 7 times, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 32 | 60 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 49 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 45 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36:32 | 4 | 40 |
D
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 8 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41:40 | 1 | 38 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:31 | 2 | 36 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32:30 | 2 | 36 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | -4 | 35 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 13 |
Vitoria
Home
|
28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28:42 | -14 | 33 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
| 14 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:32 | -3 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33:42 | -9 | 32 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 |
Vasco DA Gama
Away
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
| 17 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30:38 | -8 | 29 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 18 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30:36 | -6 | 28 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32:47 | -15 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29:53 | -24 | 18 |
D
L
W
L
W
|