SPAIN LA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio de la Ceramica
Referee: M. Sesma
Villarreal
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Giuliano Simeone
Atletico Madrid
30'
D. Parejo
Villarreal
34'
A. Perez
Villarreal
40'
G. Mikautadze · Assist: A. Perez
Villarreal
43'
M. Pubill · Assist: A. Griezmann
Atletico Madrid
45'
P. Gueye · Assist: N. Pepe
Villarreal
🔄
46'
G. Simeone ↔ A. Sorloth
Atletico Madrid
🔄
46'
M. Pubill ↔ M. Ruggeri
Atletico Madrid
🔄
46'
D. Hancko ↔ A. Puric
Atletico Madrid
54'
A. Perez · Assist: N. Pepe
Villarreal
🔄
61'
A. Lookman ↔ J. Bonar
Atletico Madrid
🔄
61'
A. Baena ↔ J. Morcillo
Atletico Madrid
🔄
66'
D. Parejo ↔ A. Diatta
Villarreal
🔄
67'
A. Pedraza ↔ S. Cardona
Villarreal
🔄
75'
P. Gueye ↔ L. Costa
Villarreal
🔄
75'
A. Perez ↔ P. Cabanes
Villarreal
🔄
89'
G. Mikautadze ↔ C. Macia
Villarreal

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Villarreal Win 65%
Draw 5.9%
Atletico Madrid Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.49
Atletico Madrid1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Villarreal Villarreal
WWDLW
79 GF / 65 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
111 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
27
BTTS Yes
34
28
Over 2.5
35
4.65
Shots on Goal
5.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Villarreal Villarreal 48 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 59 matches
Villarreal Statistic Atletico Madrid
22 Wins 32
8 Draws 10
18 Losses 17
79 Goals For 111
65 Goals Against 74
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
27 BTTS Yes 34
42 Over 1.5 47
28 Over 2.5 35
17 Over 3.5 22
10 Clean Sheets 18
12 Failed To Score 8
4.65 Shots On Goal 5.19
13.19 Total Shots 13.44
4.46 Corners 5.93
45.5% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Madrid. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Atletico Madrid look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Villarreal Analysis

Villarreal come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 69 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 67:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Mikautadze (12 goals), A. Moleiro (10 goals), G. Moreno (10 goals), with creative support from G. Mikautadze (6 assists), N. Pepe (6 assists), Santi Comesaña (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 69 points from 37 games, Atletico Madrid bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 21 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats plus a goal balance of 61:39, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Sorloth (13 goals), J. Alvarez (8 goals), A. Griezmann (7 goals), with creative support from G. Simeone (6 assists), Marcos Llorente (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Villarreal won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Villarreal's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Villarreal 4-4-2 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Villarreal 4, Atletico Madrid 8
H2H summary: Villarreal wins 2, draws 7, Atletico Madrid wins 6
Stats
Villarreal Villarreal
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
5 Corner Kicks 9
3 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Goal 4
1 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 0
10 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
502 Total passes 529
433 Passes accurate 467
2.48 expected_goals 1.16
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Villarreal
Formation
Atletico Madrid
A. Tenas
A. Tenas
S. Mourino
S. Mourino
P. Navarro
P. Navarro
R. Marin
R. Marin
A. Pedraza
A. Pedraza
N. Pepe
🎯
N. Pepe
P. Gueye
P. Gueye
D. Parejo
D. Parejo
A. Moleiro
A. Moleiro
A. Perez
⚽ 2 🎯
A. Perez
G. Mikautadze
G. Mikautadze
J. Musso
J. Musso
M. Llorente
M. Llorente
M. Pubill
M. Pubill
C. Lenglet
C. Lenglet
D. Hancko
D. Hancko
A. Baena
A. Baena
Koke
Koke
O. Vargas
O. Vargas
G. Simeone
G. Simeone
A. Griezmann
🎯
A. Griezmann
A. Lookman
A. Lookman
Villarreal 4-4-2
Starting XI
25
A. Tenas
G
15
S. Mourino
D
6
P. Navarro
D
4
R. Marin
D
24
A. Pedraza
↓ 67'
D
19
N. Pepe
🎯 45' 🎯 54'
M
18
P. Gueye
⚽ 45' ↓ 75'
M
10
D. Parejo
⚽ 30' ↓ 66'
M
20
A. Moleiro
M
22
A. Perez
⚽ 34' ⚽ 54' 🎯 40' ↓ 75'
F
9
G. Mikautadze
⚽ 40' ↓ 89'
F
Substitutes
1
Luiz Junior
G
2
L. Costa
↑ 75'
D
23
S. Cardona
↑ 67'
D
5
W. Kambwala
D
12
R. Veiga
M
33
P. Cabanes
↑ 75'
F
38
A. Diatta
↑ 66'
M
11
A. Gonzalez
F
17
T. Buchanan
F
3
A. Freeman
D
21
T. Oluwaseyi
F
37
C. Macia
↑ 89'
M
Atletico Madrid 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
J. Musso
G
14
M. Llorente
D
18
M. Pubill
⚽ 43' ↓ 46'
D
15
C. Lenglet
D
17
D. Hancko
↓ 46'
D
10
A. Baena
↓ 61'
M
6
Koke
M
21
O. Vargas
M
20
G. Simeone
↓ 46' 🟨 27'
F
7
A. Griezmann
🎯 43'
F
22
A. Lookman
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
31
S. Esquivel
G
13
J. Oblak
G
9
A. Sorloth
↑ 46'
F
3
M. Ruggeri
↑ 46'
D
32
J. Bonar
↑ 61'
D
29
R. Belaid
F
40
A. Puric
↑ 46'
D
47
J. Morcillo
↑ 61'
M
34
J. Diaz
M
37
I. Luque
F
61
M. Cubo
F
Last matches: Villarreal
08.08.26
Fri
Villarreal
Galatasaray
2
1
W
05.08.26
Fri
Villarreal
Levante
1
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Villarreal
PSV Eindhoven
3
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Villarreal
Benfica
0
2
L
17.05.26
La
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
0
2
L
13.05.26
La
Villarreal
Sevilla
2
3
L
10.05.26
La
Villarreal
Mallorca
1
1
D
02.05.26
La
Villarreal
Levante
5
1
W
26.04.26
La
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
2
1
W
23.04.26
La
Villarreal
Oviedo
1
1
D
12.04.26
La
Villarreal
Athletic Club
2
1
W
06.04.26
La
Villarreal
Girona
0
1
L
20.03.26
La
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
3
1
W
13.03.26
La
Villarreal
Alaves
1
1
D
08.03.26
La
Villarreal
Elche
2
1
W
28.02.26
La
Villarreal
Barcelona
1
4
L
22.02.26
La
Villarreal
Valencia
2
1
W
18.02.26
La
Villarreal
Levante
1
0
W
14.02.26
La
Villarreal
Getafe
1
2
L
09.02.26
La
Villarreal
Espanyol
4
1
W
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
09.08.26
Fri
Atletico Madrid
Manchester City
1
3
L
01.08.26
Fri
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
1
2
L
29.07.26
Fri
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
4
1
W
17.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Girona
1
0
W
12.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
2
1
W
09.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Celta Vigo
0
1
L
05.05.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
0
1
L
02.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
2
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
1
1
D
25.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
3
2
W
22.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Elche
2
3
L
18.04.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
2
2
D
14.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
11.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
2
0
W
04.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
1
2
L
22.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
2
3
L
18.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
2
3
L
14.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
5
2
W
H2H: Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
24.05.26
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
5
1
W
13.09.25
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
2
0
L
25.01.25
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
1
1
D
19.08.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
01.04.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
1
2
L
12.11.23
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
3
1
L
04.06.23
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
21.08.22
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
0
2
W
09.01.22
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
29.08.21
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
2
2
D
28.02.21
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
2
L
03.10.20
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
0
0
D
23.02.20
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
3
1
L
06.12.19
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
0
D
24.02.19
H2H
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
2
0
L
Last matches: Villarreal
05.08.26
Fri
Villarreal
Levante
1
0
W
13.05.26
La
Villarreal
Sevilla
2
3
L
02.05.26
La
Villarreal
Levante
5
1
W
26.04.26
La
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
2
1
W
20.03.26
La
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
3
1
W
08.03.26
La
Villarreal
Elche
2
1
W
22.02.26
La
Villarreal
Valencia
2
1
W
09.02.26
La
Villarreal
Espanyol
4
1
W
24.01.26
La
Villarreal
Real Madrid
0
2
L
20.01.26
UEF
Villarreal
Ajax
1
2
L
10.01.26
La
Villarreal
Alaves
3
1
W
21.12.25
La
Villarreal
Barcelona
0
2
L
10.12.25
UEF
Villarreal
FC Copenhagen
2
3
L
06.12.25
La
Villarreal
Getafe
2
0
W
22.11.25
La
Villarreal
Mallorca
2
1
W
01.11.25
La
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
4
0
W
21.10.25
UEF
Villarreal
Manchester City
0
2
L
18.10.25
La
Villarreal
Real Betis
2
2
D
01.10.25
UEF
Villarreal
Juventus
2
2
D
27.09.25
La
Villarreal
Athletic Club
1
0
W
H2H at home: Villarreal
24.05.26
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
5
1
W
19.08.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
01.04.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
1
2
L
04.06.23
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
09.01.22
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
28.02.21
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
2
L
06.12.19
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Madrid
09.08.26
Fri
Atletico Madrid
Manchester City
1
3
L
01.08.26
Fri
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
1
2
L
12.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
2
1
W
05.05.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
0
1
L
02.05.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Valencia
2
0
W
22.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Elche
2
3
L
11.04.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
1
2
L
08.04.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
2
0
W
22.03.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
2
3
L
18.03.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Tottenham
2
3
L
03.03.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
0
3
L
28.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
1
0
W
18.02.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
3
3
D
15.02.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
0
3
L
05.02.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
5
0
W
31.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Levante
0
0
D
21.01.26
UEF
Atletico Madrid
Galatasaray
1
1
D
13.01.26
Cop
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo La Coruna
1
0
W
04.01.26
La
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
1
1
D
21.12.25
La
Atletico Madrid
Girona
3
0
W
H2H away: Atletico Madrid
24.05.26
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
5
1
L
19.08.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
01.04.24
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
1
2
W
04.06.23
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
09.01.22
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
2
2
D
28.02.21
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
2
W
06.12.19
H2H
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
0
0
D

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2

Missing Players

Villarreal 4 missing
-
P. Cabanes
Missing Fixture Convalescence
OUT
-
J. Foyth
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
S. Comesana
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
G. Moreno
Questionable Injury
OUT
Atletico Madrid 8 missing
-
P. Barrios
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Cardoso
Missing Fixture Contusion
OUT
-
R. Mendoza
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. M. Gimenez
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
N. Gonzalez
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
R. Le Normand
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
N. Molina
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Alvarez
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT