SPAIN LA LIGA
24.05.2026 19:00
Estadio de la Ceramica
Referee: M. Sesma
Villarreal
Match Timeline
Atletico Madrid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Giuliano Simeone
Atletico Madrid
30'
D. Parejo
Villarreal
34'
A. Perez
Villarreal
40'
G. Mikautadze · Assist: A. Perez
Villarreal
43'
M. Pubill · Assist: A. Griezmann
Atletico Madrid
45'
P. Gueye · Assist: N. Pepe
Villarreal
🔄
46'
G. Simeone ↔ A. Sorloth
Atletico Madrid
🔄
46'
M. Pubill ↔ M. Ruggeri
Atletico Madrid
🔄
46'
D. Hancko ↔ A. Puric
Atletico Madrid
54'
A. Perez · Assist: N. Pepe
Villarreal
🔄
61'
A. Lookman ↔ J. Bonar
Atletico Madrid
🔄
61'
A. Baena ↔ J. Morcillo
Atletico Madrid
🔄
66'
D. Parejo ↔ A. Diatta
Villarreal
🔄
67'
A. Pedraza ↔ S. Cardona
Villarreal
🔄
75'
P. Gueye ↔ L. Costa
Villarreal
🔄
75'
A. Perez ↔ P. Cabanes
Villarreal
🔄
89'
G. Mikautadze ↔ C. Macia
Villarreal

Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Villarreal Win 65%
Draw 5.9%
Atletico Madrid Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.49
Atletico Madrid1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Villarreal Villarreal
WWDLW
79 GF / 65 GA
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WLDWL
111 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
27
BTTS Yes
34
28
Over 2.5
35
4.65
Shots on Goal
5.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Villarreal Villarreal 48 matches
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 59 matches
Villarreal Statistic Atletico Madrid
22 Wins 32
8 Draws 10
18 Losses 17
79 Goals For 111
65 Goals Against 74
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
27 BTTS Yes 34
42 Over 1.5 47
28 Over 2.5 35
17 Over 3.5 22
10 Clean Sheets 18
12 Failed To Score 8
4.65 Shots On Goal 5.19
13.19 Total Shots 13.44
4.46 Corners 5.93
45.5% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Madrid. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Atletico Madrid look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Villarreal Analysis

Villarreal come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 69 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 67:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Mikautadze (12 goals), A. Moleiro (10 goals), G. Moreno (10 goals), with creative support from G. Mikautadze (6 assists), N. Pepe (6 assists), Santi Comesaña (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico Madrid Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 69 points from 37 games, Atletico Madrid bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 21 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats plus a goal balance of 61:39, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Sorloth (13 goals), J. Alvarez (8 goals), A. Griezmann (7 goals), with creative support from G. Simeone (6 assists), Marcos Llorente (5 assists), J. Alvarez (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Villarreal won 2 times, Atletico Madrid won 5 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:24 from Villarreal's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Villarreal 4-4-2 / Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
Missing players: Villarreal 4, Atletico Madrid 8
H2H summary: Villarreal wins 2, draws 8, Atletico Madrid wins 5

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2