17.08.2026 22:15
Jose Amalfitani
Referee: Nicolas Ramirez
Velez Sarsfield
Match Timeline
Defensa Y Justicia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
M. Lanzini · Assist: M. Pellegrini
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
25'
Ayrton Portillo
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
30'
Thiago Silvero
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
35'
Matías Pellegrini
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
47'
Santiago Sosa
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
50'
David Martínez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
56'
A. Portillo ↔ V. Loza
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
56'
D. Blanco ↔ J. Lucco
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
61'
A. Veron ↔ C. Baeza
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
61'
D. Godoy ↔ T. Aguirre
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
69'
F. Roman ↔ D. Dominguez
Defensa Y Justicia
79'
L. Fernandez · Assist: J. Gutierrez
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
80'
L. Robertone ↔ L. Feler
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
83'
Joaquín García
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
88'
D. Barbona ↔ M. Porcel
Defensa Y Justicia
🔄
88'
L. Fernandez ↔ T. Perez
Defensa Y Justicia
🟨
90'
Manuel Lanzini
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
90+4'
M. Lanzini ↔ J. Policella
Velez Sarsfield

Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Velez Sarsfield Win 87%
Draw 6.5%
Defensa Y Justicia Win 6.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velez Sarsfield1.34
Defensa Y Justicia0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WWDLW
30 GF / 16 GA
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia
WLDWL
27 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.17
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
11
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
11
4.14
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 23 matches
Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia 23 matches
Velez Sarsfield Statistic Defensa Y Justicia
12 Wins 8
8 Draws 8
3 Losses 7
30 Goals For 27
16 Goals Against 32
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
11 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 18
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
4.14 Shots On Goal 4.2
11.86 Total Shots 11.05
4.24 Corners 4.3
53.8% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Velez Sarsfield's more proactive style and Defensa Y Justicia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Defensa Y Justicia. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Velez Sarsfield arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 28 points compared to Defensa Y Justicia in 10 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 28 points from 16 games, Velez Sarsfield bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with a 18:12 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), Thiago Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Thiago Aguirre (1 assists), Elías Gómez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Defensa Y Justicia Analysis

Defensa Y Justicia are currently 10 in the standings with 19 points from 16 matches. The record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 18:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (2 goals), Ayrton Portillo (2 goals), David Barbona (2 goals), with creative support from Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (1 assists), Aaron Molinas (1 assists), César Pérez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Velez Sarsfield won 4 times, Defensa Y Justicia won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from Velez Sarsfield's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 / Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Velez Sarsfield wins 4, draws 6, Defensa Y Justicia wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase