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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
15.10.2026 00:30
Geodis Park
Referee: Joshua Encarnacion
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Hany Mukhtar · Assist: Andy Najar
Nashville SC
⚽
17'
Sam Surridge · Assist: Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
⚽
29'
Andy Najar · Assist: Cristian Espinoza
Nashville SC
🔄
45'
Zorhan Bassong ↔ Jacob Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
45'
André Luiz ↔ Calvin Harris
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
53'
Seymour Garfield-Reid ↔ Taylor Calheira
Sporting Kansas City
VAR
65'
Sam Surridge
Nashville SC
🔄
68'
Andy Najar ↔ Daniel Lovitz
Nashville SC
🔄
68'
Cristian Espinoza ↔ Shakur Mohammed
Nashville SC
🔄
69'
Ian James ↔ Jacob Davis
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
76'
matthew corcoran ↔ Bryan Acosta
Nashville SC
🔄
76'
Hany Mukhtar ↔ Warren Madrigal
Nashville SC
🔄
81'
Jayden Reid ↔ Emir Karic
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
83'
Sam Surridge ↔ Alex Muyl
Nashville SC
VAR
90+3'
Warren Madrigal
Nashville SC
⚽
90+5'
Warren Madrigal
Nashville SC

Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.19
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.30
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.5%
1.19 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.30 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 83.5%
Draw 3.3%
Sporting Kansas City Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC2
Sporting Kansas City1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
75 GF / 30 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
40 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.18
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
2.18
17
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
24
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 40 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 34 matches
Nashville SC Statistic Sporting Kansas City
24 Wins 9
10 Draws 4
6 Losses 21
75 Goals For 40
30 Goals Against 74
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 2.18
17 BTTS Yes 19
25 Over 1.5 30
21 Over 2.5 24
15 Over 3.5 13
19 Clean Sheets 3
9 Failed To Score 12
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.36
12.53 Total Shots 10.93
5.25 Corners 4
52.7% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nashville SC's more proactive style and Sporting Kansas City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sporting Kansas City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sporting Kansas City in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Kansas City having the stronger overall control. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 60 points compared to Sporting Kansas City in 15 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Sporting Kansas City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 60 points from 27 matches. Their overall return of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 55:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Mukhtar (8 goals), S. Surridge (7 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (7 assists), H. Mukhtar (5 assists), A. Najar (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 13 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 21 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 32:65 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Dejan Joveljić (7 goals), André Luiz (5 goals), C. Harris (3 goals), with creative support from C. Harris (3 assists), Manu García (3 assists), S. Afrifa (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 3 times, Sporting Kansas City won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:6 from Nashville SC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
Missing players: Nashville SC 0, Sporting Kansas City 7
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 3, draws 0, Sporting Kansas City wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)