BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio São Januário
Referee: F. Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Live Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Joao Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🟨
27'
Adson
Vasco DA Gama
33'
Tche Tche
Vasco DA Gama
55'
Lucas Freitas · Assist: Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.5%
Odds 3.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.5%
3.22
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.09
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 19.1%
Draw 5.4%
Cruzeiro Win 75.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.12
Cruzeiro1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
24 GF / 38 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
47 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
15
BTTS Yes
21
13
Over 2.5
19
5.04
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 23 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 34 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Cruzeiro
5 Wins 15
7 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
24 Goals For 47
38 Goals Against 42
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
15 BTTS Yes 21
17 Over 1.5 27
13 Over 2.5 19
5 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 5
5.04 Shots On Goal 4.47
17.26 Total Shots 14.09
5.22 Corners 4.84
53.8% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cruzeiro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cruzeiro carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 36 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 19 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruzeiro.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

With 22 points from 22 games and a place of 19, Vasco DA Gama still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 23:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 36 points from 23 games, Cruzeiro bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 32:32, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kaio Jorge (6 goals), Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Fagner (4 assists), Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 4 times, Cruzeiro won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:16 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 5, Cruzeiro 3
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 4, draws 6, Cruzeiro wins 5
Stats
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
9 Corner Kicks 0
9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Goal 3
2 Shots off Goal 0
5 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 3
4 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 7
269 Total passes 270
219 Passes accurate 219
2.82 expected_goals 0.16
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
Formation
Cruzeiro
Léo Jardim
Léo Jardim
Paulo Henrique
Paulo Henrique
Carlos Cuesta
Carlos Cuesta
Lucas Freitas
Lucas Freitas
Lucas Piton
🎯
Lucas Piton
Santiago Sosa
Santiago Sosa
Adson
Adson
Tchê Tchê
Tchê Tchê
Thiago Mendes
Thiago Mendes
Andrés Gómez
Andrés Gómez
Facundo Colidio
Facundo Colidio
Otávio Costa
Otávio Costa
William Furtado
William Furtado
João Marcelo
João Marcelo
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Gabriel Rojas
Gabriel Rojas
Matheus Henrique
Matheus Henrique
Zé Lucas
Zé Lucas
João Costa
João Costa
Luciano Rodríguez
Luciano Rodríguez
Kaique Kenji
Kaique Kenji
Néiser Villarreal
Néiser Villarreal
Vasco DA Gama 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Léo Jardim
G
96
Paulo Henrique
D
46
Carlos Cuesta
D
43
Lucas Freitas
⚽ 55'
D
6
Lucas Piton
🎯 55'
D
5
Santiago Sosa
M
28
Adson
🟨 27'
M
3
Tchê Tchê
⚽ 33'
M
23
Thiago Mendes
M
11
Andrés Gómez
M
9
Facundo Colidio
F
Substitutes
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
2
Puma Rodríguez
D
4
Alan Saldivia
D
82
Riquelme Avellar
D
80
Bruno André Azevedo Ribeiro
D
17
Nuno Moreira
M
18
Marino Hinestroza
F
88
Cauan Barros
M
83
Ramon Rique
M
77
Claudio Spinelli
F
7
David
F
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otávio Costa
G
12
William Furtado
D
43
João Marcelo
🟨 24'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
27
Gabriel Rojas
D
7
Matheus Henrique
M
5
Zé Lucas
M
67
João Costa
M
97
Luciano Rodríguez
M
70
Kaique Kenji
M
22
Néiser Villarreal
F
Substitutes
1
Cássio
G
25
Lucas Villalba
D
2
Kauã Moraes
D
23
Fagner
D
10
Matheus Pereira
M
11
Marquinhos
F
29
Lucas Romero
M
20
Wesley
F
94
Wanderson
F
38
Felipe Morais
M
16
Lucas Silva
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
23.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
1
4
L
16.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
0
3
L
09.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
Last matches: Cruzeiro
22.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
2
1
W
20.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
H2H: Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro
15.03.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
27.09.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
27.04.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
29.09.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
16.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
22.11.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
08.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
22.09.22
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
L
12.06.22
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
19.09.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
25.06.21
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
02.12.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
01.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
14.10.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
07.06.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.08.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
0
3
L
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
H2H at home: Vasco DA Gama
27.09.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
16.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
08.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
12.06.22
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
19.09.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
02.12.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
W
14.10.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
20.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
2
D
30.01.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
4
L
H2H away: Cruzeiro
27.09.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
16.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
08.07.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
0
1
W
12.06.22
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
19.09.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
02.12.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
1
0
L
14.10.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.22
Draw 3.26
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.89
Draw 2.18
Home 2.96
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.42
Over 2.0 1.55
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.09
Over 2.75 2.40
Over 3.0 2.87
Over 3.5 3.67
Over 4.5 7.01
Under 1.5 3.31
Under 1.75 2.91
Under 2.0 2.49
Under 2.25 2.02
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.43
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.20
Home 2.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.10
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.38
Home 2.62
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.21
Draw 3.29
Home 2.34
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.01
Home 2.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.38
Draw 2.36
Home 2.59
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.51
Over 2.25 1.83
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 2.75 2.28
Over 3.0 2.81
Over 3.25 3.12
Over 3.5 3.44
Over 3.75 4.29
Over 4.0 5.95
Over 4.25 6.35
Over 4.5 6.75
Over 5.0 10.50
Over 5.5 13.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 8.20
Under 0.75 7.50
Under 1.0 6.90
Under 1.25 4.06
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.70
Under 2.0 2.33
Under 2.25 2.02
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 2.75 1.53
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.25
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.16
Home 2.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.50
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.25
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.10
Over 3.5 3.45
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 14.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.50
Under 1.75 3.05
Under 2.0 2.63
Under 2.25 2.10
Under 2.5 1.81
Under 2.75 1.63
Under 3.0 1.44
Under 3.25 1.36
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 24 13 5 6 34:22 12 44
W D W D W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 23 10 5 8 28:23 5 35
W D L D D
8 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
9 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
10 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
L L W D D
11 23 8 6 9 37:37 0 30
L L D W D
12 24 8 5 11 23:35 -12 29
L W L L L
13 23 7 6 10 27:27 0 27
L D L D L
14 23 6 8 9 33:36 -3 26
D W L D L
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 23 6 6 11 26:36 -10 24
D L L W D
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 23 5 7 11 24:38 -14 22
L L D D L
20 23 2 8 13 24:46 -22 14
W D L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Vasco DA Gama 5 missing
-
Robert Renan
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Rojas
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Brenner
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Jair
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Cruzeiro 3 missing
-
Fabricio Bruno
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
L. Sinisterra
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Pec
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT