BRAZIL SERIE A
30.08.2026 00:20
São Januário
Referee: F. Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Joao Marcelo
Cruzeiro
🟨
27'
Adson
Vasco DA Gama
33'
Tche Tche
Vasco DA Gama
55'
Lucas Freitas · Assist: Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
62'
L. Rodriguez ↔ Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
62'
J. Costa ↔ Wesley
Cruzeiro
🔄
70'
Adson ↔ J. Rodriguez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
79'
S. Sosa ↔ Cauan Barros
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
79'
F. Colidio ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
79'
Ze Lucas ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🔄
79'
Kenji ↔ Felipe Morais
Cruzeiro
🔄
84'
N. Villarreal ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🔄
85'
Tche Tche ↔ Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
85'
A. Gomez ↔ M. Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
90+4'
Cauan Barros
Vasco DA Gama
90'
David · Assist: Ramon Rique
Vasco DA Gama
90'
Felipe Morais · Assist: Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro

Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.5%
Odds 3.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.5%
3.22
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.09
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 19.1%
Draw 5.4%
Cruzeiro Win 75.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.12
Cruzeiro1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
24 GF / 38 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
47 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
15
BTTS Yes
21
13
Over 2.5
19
5.04
Shots on Goal
4.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 23 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 34 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Cruzeiro
5 Wins 15
7 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
24 Goals For 47
38 Goals Against 42
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
15 BTTS Yes 21
17 Over 1.5 27
13 Over 2.5 19
5 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 5
5.04 Shots On Goal 4.47
17.26 Total Shots 14.09
5.22 Corners 4.84
53.8% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cruzeiro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cruzeiro carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 36 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 19 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruzeiro.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

With 22 points from 22 games and a place of 19, Vasco DA Gama still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 23:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 36 points from 23 games, Cruzeiro bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 32:32, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kaio Jorge (6 goals), Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Fagner (4 assists), Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 4 times, Cruzeiro won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:16 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 5, Cruzeiro 3
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 4, draws 6, Cruzeiro wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
4 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
5 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B