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TURKEY › 1. LIG
18.10.2026 13:00
Spor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu

Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds 3.09
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.96
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.1%
3.09 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.96 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.8%
1.52 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Vanspor FK Win 26.5%
Draw 14.4%
Ümraniyespor Win 59.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vanspor FK1.2
Ümraniyespor1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK
WWDLW
10 GF / 20 GA
Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor
WLDWL
8 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.8
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
4
3.2
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vanspor FK Vanspor FK 10 matches
Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 10 matches
Vanspor FK Statistic Ümraniyespor
2 Wins 1
3 Draws 4
5 Losses 5
10 Goals For 8
20 Goals Against 15
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
6 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
3.2 Shots On Goal 4.44
9.6 Total Shots 11.89
4.3 Corners 4.22
44.6% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ümraniyespor. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vanspor FK expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ümraniyespor in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ümraniyespor having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vanspor FK Analysis

Vanspor FK sit 19 with 4 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Maniş (2 goals), J. Bardhi (2 goals), with creative support from M. Maniş (2 assists), O. Kökçü (1 assists), O. Çağlayan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ümraniyespor Analysis

Ümraniyespor sit 17 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 7:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Yıldırım (1 goals), Álex Blanco (1 goals), M. Bostan (1 goals), with creative support from C. Topaloğlu (1 assists), S. Göksu (1 assists), T. Taşçı (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Vanspor FK won 1 times, Ümraniyespor won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Vanspor FK's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Vanspor FK 4-2-3-1 / Ümraniyespor 4-3-3
H2H summary: Vanspor FK wins 1, draws 0, Ümraniyespor wins 3

Standings

Lig A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 22:5 17 25
W W W W W
2 10 7 1 2 20:9 11 22
W L W D W
3 10 6 2 2 14:8 6 20
D W D W W
4 10 6 1 3 20:17 3 19
W L L L W
5 10 5 3 2 12:6 6 18
W W L L W
6 10 4 5 1 19:10 9 17
D W D D W
7 10 4 3 3 13:14 -1 15
L D W D L
8 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L W W W L
9 10 3 5 2 15:6 9 14
D W L D W
10 10 3 4 3 13:13 0 13
L D W D L
11 10 2 6 2 14:13 1 12
D W D D W
12 10 2 6 2 9:11 -2 12
L D D D D
13 10 2 5 3 11:9 2 11
W L D W L
14 10 2 4 4 15:16 -1 10
D L L D L
15 10 2 4 4 12:19 -7 10
L L D D W
16 10 1 6 3 6:11 -5 9
D W L D L
17 9 1 4 4 7:10 -3 7
D W L L
18 10 2 3 5 10:20 -10 7
W L L D D
19 10 1 2 7 9:24 -15 5
L L W L L
20 9 0 1 8 3:21 -18 1
L L D L
Promotion - Super Lig
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation