PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
08.08.2026 01:30
Estadio Monumental
Referee: S. Lozano
Universitario
Match Timeline
Sporting Cristal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
C. Fara
Universitario
🟨
30'
Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
J. Gonzalez ↔ L. Sosa
Sporting Cristal
🔄
65'
Gabriel ↔ J. Cuesta
Sporting Cristal
🔄
71'
A. Santamaria ↔ W. Riveros
Universitario
72'
G. Lapadula · Assist: A. Valera
Universitario
🔄
75'
H. Barcos ↔ M. Hoyos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
76'
L. Diaz ↔ C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
82'
Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal
🔄
83'
J. Requena ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
83'
J. Concha ↔ L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🟨
89'
A. Quiroz
Universitario
🟨
90+1'
C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
90+5'
S. Gonzalez ↔ M. Castro
Sporting Cristal

Universitario vs Sporting Cristal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universitario Win 83.3%
Draw 10.8%
Sporting Cristal Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario1.41
Sporting Cristal1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario Universitario
WWDLW
41 GF / 28 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
45 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.45
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
14
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
19
3.96
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario Universitario 30 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 31 matches
Universitario Statistic Sporting Cristal
14 Wins 11
8 Draws 6
8 Losses 14
41 Goals For 45
28 Goals Against 46
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
14 BTTS Yes 20
20 Over 1.5 26
14 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 4
3.96 Shots On Goal 4.8
13.42 Total Shots 14.5
5.92 Corners 5.4
52% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Universitario's more proactive style and Sporting Cristal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Sporting Cristal in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Cristal having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Cristal. Sporting Cristal arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Universitario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 29 points compared to Sporting Cristal in 12 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 29 points after 17 matches. With 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 24:15, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Alex Valera (5 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Caín Fara (2 goals), with creative support from Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), Andy Polo (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 19 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 28:30 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), Felipe Vizeu (3 goals), Yoshimar Yotún (2 goals), with creative support from Yoshimar Yotún (4 assists), Maxloren Castro (2 assists), Gabriel Santana (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universitario won 4 times, Sporting Cristal won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Universitario's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Universitario 4-1-3-2 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Universitario wins 4, draws 8, Sporting Cristal wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 8 2 41:16 25 53
D L D W D
2 25 13 7 5 41:26 15 46
D W W W D
3 25 13 6 6 35:23 12 45
W W W D W
4 25 12 6 7 43:28 15 42
W L D W L
5 25 13 3 9 38:36 2 42
W W L W L
6 25 12 5 8 34:42 -8 41
L L L L D
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 25 9 7 9 27:25 2 34
L W W D D
10 25 9 5 11 43:38 5 32
W L L W D
11 25 7 9 9 34:35 -1 30
D L W L W
12 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
13 25 8 5 12 33:42 -9 29
W W L L D
14 25 7 7 11 36:51 -15 28
D W W L D
15 25 6 7 12 23:35 -12 25
L L W D L
16 25 6 6 13 38:49 -11 24
L W L L W
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 25 4 8 13 29:45 -16 15
L L L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2