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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
14.10.2026 18:45
Carrow Road
Referee: Stephen Martin, England
Norwich
Match Timeline
Southampton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Ryan Manning
Southampton
🔄
22'
Flynn Downes ↔ Caspar Jander
Southampton
🟨
26'
Zach Abbott
Southampton
🔄
45'
Ryan Manning ↔ Welington
Southampton
🔄
45'
Zach Abbott ↔ James Bree
Southampton
🟨
48'
Jacob Wright
Norwich
⚽
54'
Kuryu Matsuki
Southampton
🔄
61'
Anis Ben Slimane ↔ Paris Maghoma
Norwich
🔄
61'
Mathias Kvistgaarden ↔ J. Makama
Norwich
🔄
70'
Samuel Edozie ↔ Cyle Larin
Southampton
🔄
72'
Oscar Schwartau ↔ Anthony Musaba
Norwich
🔄
72'
Andre Brooks ↔ Ante Crnac
Norwich
🔄
76'
Jacob Wright ↔ Samuel Field
Norwich
🟨
77'
Samuel Field
Norwich
🔄
82'
Lewis Dobbin ↔ Divin Mubama
Southampton

Norwich vs Southampton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Norwich Win 44.1%
Draw 17.6%
Southampton Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Norwich1.34
Southampton1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Norwich Norwich
L L L W W
12 GF / 12 GA
Southampton Southampton
W L W W D
10 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
8
5.44
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Norwich Norwich 16 matches
Southampton Southampton 12 matches
Norwich Statistic Southampton
6 Wins 8
3 Draws 2
7 Losses 2
25 Goals For 26
21 Goals Against 12
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 0
5.44 Shots On Goal 4.67
14.67 Total Shots 15.33
4.44 Corners 5.22
51.8% Ball Possession 57.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Southampton's more proactive style and Norwich's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Southampton. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Norwich have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Norwich Analysis

Norwich sit 17 with 9 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats with a 16:17 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Touré (5 goals), A. Brooks (2 goals), M. Kvistgaarden (2 goals), with creative support from A. Brooks (2 assists), P. Maghoma (2 assists), M. Kvistgaarden (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Southampton Analysis

Southampton are currently 13 in the standings with 10 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 19:10 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Larin (7 goals), F. Azaz (3 goals), Léo Scienza (2 goals), with creative support from F. Azaz (3 assists), F. Downes (2 assists), Léo Scienza (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Norwich won 4 times, Southampton won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:28 from Norwich's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
Predicted formations: Norwich 4-2-3-1 / Southampton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Norwich 6, Southampton 1
H2H summary: Norwich wins 4, draws 3, Southampton wins 8

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 7 4 1 27:17 10 25
W D W W D
2 11 7 2 2 16:8 8 23
L W W W W
3 11 6 4 1 30:12 18 22
W W D D W
4 11 5 5 1 20:11 9 20
W W W D W
5 11 6 2 3 15:12 3 20
W W L L D
6 11 6 1 4 18:16 2 19
W L W W W
7 11 5 3 3 19:16 3 18
D W L L W
8 12 5 3 4 16:15 1 18
W D W W L
9 11 6 3 2 21:10 11 17
D W W L W
10 11 4 5 2 15:12 3 17
L W D D D
11 12 4 4 4 16:15 1 16
D W L W L
12 11 4 3 4 17:16 1 15
L W W D W
13 12 4 3 5 19:20 -1 15
L D L W D
14 11 3 5 3 15:16 -1 14
W L D W L
15 11 4 2 5 12:15 -3 14
L L D W L
16 12 4 2 6 16:23 -7 14
L D W L W
17 12 3 5 4 11:18 -7 14
L L D D L
18 12 4 0 8 20:22 -2 12
W L L L L
19 11 3 3 5 9:19 -10 12
D L L L W
20 11 2 5 4 18:17 1 11
D W L W L
21 11 3 2 6 10:19 -9 11
W L L L L
22 11 1 5 5 16:21 -5 8
L D W D L
23 12 1 4 7 10:21 -11 7
D L L D D
24 11 1 1 9 9:24 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One