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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
14.10.2026 18:45
Loftus Road

QPR vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.66
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.79
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.6%
1.66 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.79 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
QPR Win 66.6%
Draw 5.2%
Derby Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
QPR1.73
Derby0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
QPR QPR
WWDLW
28 GF / 13 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
16 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.07
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
9
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
5.11
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

QPR QPR 15 matches
Derby Derby 15 matches
QPR Statistic Derby
8 Wins 3
6 Draws 4
1 Losses 8
28 Goals For 16
13 Goals Against 23
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
9 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
5.11 Shots On Goal 3.67
16.11 Total Shots 12
6.22 Corners 5.78
48.8% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around QPR's more proactive style and Derby's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Derby. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. QPR arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 13 points compared to Derby in 22 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with QPR expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Derby in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derby having the stronger overall control. Derby arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

QPR Analysis

From their first 8 matches, QPR have collected 13 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 10:7 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Chair (2 goals), P. Smyth (2 goals), J. Dunne (1 goals), with creative support from I. Chair (1 assists), R. Burrell (1 assists), A. Mbengue (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Derby Analysis

With 5 points from 8 games and a place of 22, Derby still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 7:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through B. Clark (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), C. Morris (1 goals), with creative support from B. Clark (1 assists), S. Szmodics (1 assists), C. Morris (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, QPR won 5 times, Derby won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from QPR's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: QPR 4-4-2 / Derby 4-2-3-1
Missing players: QPR 3, Derby 6
H2H summary: QPR wins 5, draws 3, Derby wins 7

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:7 9 23
W W W W L
2 10 6 3 1 20:14 6 21
W W D D W
3 10 4 5 1 17:11 6 17
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 12:10 2 17
W L L D W
5 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
6 10 5 1 4 17:16 1 16
L W W W D
7 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
W W D W L
8
QPR Home
9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
9 9 4 2 3 16:14 2 14
L L W W D
10 10 4 2 4 16:16 0 14
L W D D L
11 10 4 2 4 12:14 -2 14
L D W L L
12 10 3 5 2 10:13 -3 14
D D L D D
13 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
14 10 4 1 5 15:18 -3 13
W L W W L
15 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
16 10 2 5 3 11:15 -4 11
L D W L D
17 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
18 10 2 4 4 16:15 1 10
W L W L D
19 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
20 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
21 10 1 5 4 15:19 -4 8
D W D L D
22 10 2 2 6 8:19 -11 8
L L L L W
23
Derby Away
9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 10 1 1 8 8:20 -12 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One