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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
14.10.2026 13:00
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Kaivoja

Trans Narva vs Kuressaare Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 75.4%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
75.4%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.07 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 24.6%
Draw 30.4%
Kuressaare Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.33
Kuressaare1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
36 GF / 81 GA
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WLDWL
44 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
1.26
2.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
20
BTTS Yes
19
25
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 38 matches
Kuressaare Kuressaare 35 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Kuressaare
6 Wins 10
9 Draws 7
23 Losses 18
36 Goals For 44
81 Goals Against 66
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
2.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
20 BTTS Yes 19
33 Over 1.5 26
25 Over 2.5 21
13 Over 3.5 15
5 Clean Sheets 5
15 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kuressaare. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kuressaare having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Trans Narva have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 19 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 22:65 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kuressaare Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Kuressaare have collected 29 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses, while the 31:49 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 3 times, Kuressaare won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:23 from Trans Narva's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (75.4%)
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 3, draws 4, Kuressaare wins 8

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 6 1 82:21 61 75
W D W W W
2 30 18 1 11 59:41 18 55
L W W D W
3 30 15 6 9 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
4 31 15 6 10 54:30 24 51
D L W W L
5 30 15 2 13 41:47 -6 47
W L L W L
6 31 13 2 16 43:47 -4 41
W W D W L
7 31 10 6 15 43:61 -18 36
D D L L L
8 30 9 5 16 33:49 -16 32
W D L L W
9 31 9 1 21 47:74 -27 28
L L L L W
10 30 5 5 20 24:67 -43 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga