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MEXICO › LIGA MX
25.10.2026 03:00
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win 67.5%
Draw 7.7%
Tigres UANL Win 24.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.37
Tigres UANL1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
WWDLW
24 GF / 25 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
30 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
9
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
9
4.36
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 16 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 22 matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Statistic Tigres UANL
6 Wins 8
4 Draws 8
6 Losses 6
24 Goals For 30
25 Goals Against 26
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
9 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 5
4.36 Shots On Goal 5.14
12.36 Total Shots 15.43
4.64 Corners 6.24
46.4% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Tigres UANL in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tigres UANL having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tigres UANL.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Analysis

U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 9 with 16 points after 12 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juninho (8 goals), R. Morales (3 goals), G. Martínez (2 goals), with creative support from R. Morales (4 assists), R. López (2 assists), A. Carrasquilla (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL are currently 13 in the standings with 13 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Brunetta (4 goals), F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), F. Gorriarán (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 times, Tigres UANL won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from U.N.A.M. - Pumas's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-4-2 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins 2, draws 7, Tigres UANL wins 6

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)