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21.10.2026 00:07
Estadio Akron

Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.41
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.8%
1.41 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.48 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.15 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Guadalajara Chivas Win 78.8%
Draw 4.4%
Necaxa Win 16.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guadalajara Chivas1.51
Necaxa1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
WWDLW
22 GF / 12 GA
Necaxa Necaxa
WLDWL
24 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
6
BTTS Yes
12
4
Over 2.5
10
5.58
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 16 matches
Necaxa Necaxa 17 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Statistic Necaxa
7 Wins 5
7 Draws 5
2 Losses 7
22 Goals For 24
12 Goals Against 29
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
6 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 13
4 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 4
5.58 Shots On Goal 4.83
15.67 Total Shots 14.75
8 Corners 5.58
59.9% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Guadalajara Chivas's more proactive style and Necaxa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Necaxa. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Necaxa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Guadalajara Chivas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 19 points compared to Necaxa in 17 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guadalajara Chivas expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Necaxa in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Necaxa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 19 points after 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), Santiago Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), Á. Sepúlveda (2 assists), E. Álvarez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Necaxa Analysis

Necaxa sit 17 with 9 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 15:23, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Carranza (5 goals), M. Espíndola (2 goals), Owen de Jesús González Ojeda (2 goals), with creative support from J. Carranza (1 assists), M. Espíndola (1 assists), Juan Valencia (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 10 times, Necaxa won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:13 from Guadalajara Chivas's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1 / Necaxa 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Guadalajara Chivas wins 10, draws 2, Necaxa wins 2

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)