🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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BMO Field

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
67.5%
1.57
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
1.67
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.1%
1.28
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 32.5%
Draw 24.4%
Charlotte Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.44
Charlotte1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
36 GF / 38 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
38 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
18
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
15
4.11
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 23 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Charlotte
7 Wins 11
9 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
36 Goals For 38
38 Goals Against 31
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
18 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 5
4.11 Shots On Goal 4.42
11.21 Total Shots 10.79
5.11 Corners 4.32
45.2% Ball Possession 44.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Charlotte's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Charlotte in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Charlotte.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 17 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 24:32 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlotte Analysis

So far, Charlotte have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 25 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 29:27 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Pep Biel (4 goals), Idan Toklomati (3 goals), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (2 goals), with creative support from Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), Pep Biel (3 assists), Ashley Westwood (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 3 times, Charlotte won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:15 from Toronto FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.6%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 3-4-2-1 / Charlotte 4-3-3
Missing players: Toronto FC 7, Charlotte 5
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 3, draws 1, Charlotte wins 5
Last matches: Toronto FC
15.08.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
2
1
W
31.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York City FC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
DC United
1
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
0
0
D
16.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
0
0
D
24.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
3
L
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
3
L
22.02.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Dallas
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
Last matches: Charlotte
15.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Columbus Crew
3
1
W
02.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
25.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
23.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
0
1
L
09.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
11.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
21.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
6
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Austin
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
H2H: Toronto FC vs Charlotte
16.05.26
H2H
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
1
L
26.07.25
H2H
Charlotte
Toronto FC
2
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
0
2
L
13.04.24
H2H
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
2
L
09.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
04.10.23
H2H
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
0
L
01.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
27.08.22
H2H
Charlotte
Toronto FC
0
2
W
23.07.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
4
0
W
Last matches: Toronto FC
15.08.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
2
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
11.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
AIK Stockholm
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Jeonbuk Motors
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Incheon United
4
1
W
H2H at home: Toronto FC
31.05.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
0
2
L
09.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
01.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
23.07.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
4
0
W
Last matches: Charlotte
02.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
25.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
07.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
Charlotte
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Charlotte
31.05.25
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
0
2
W
09.03.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
0
L
01.04.23
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
23.07.22
H2H
Toronto FC
Charlotte
4
0
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.97
Draw 3.74
Home 2.33
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.54
Draw 2.46
Home 2.87
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 2.75 1.84
Over 3.0 2.09
Over 3.25 2.37
Over 3.5 2.64
Over 4.5 4.75
Under 1.5 4.76
Under 2.25 2.77
Under 2.5 2.30
Under 2.75 2.06
Under 3.0 1.80
Under 3.25 1.63
Under 3.5 1.51
Under 4.5 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.50
Home 2.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.30
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.50
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 3.50
Home 2.28
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.15
Draw 2.28
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.70
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.25 1.41
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 2.75 1.82
Over 3.0 2.08
Over 3.25 2.35
Over 3.5 2.65
Over 3.75 2.88
Over 4.5 4.90
Over 5.5 9.50
Under 0.5 12.50
Under 1.5 4.40
Under 2.25 2.80
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.94
Under 3.0 1.71
Under 3.25 1.56
Under 3.5 1.45
Under 3.75 1.38
Under 4.5 1.16
Under 5.5 1.04

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Toronto FC 7 missing
-
J. Osorio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Gomis
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Pereira
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
L. Stefanovic
Questionable Foot Injury
OUT
-
D. Mihailovic
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
D. Kerr
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
N. Palacio
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
Charlotte 5 missing
-
N. Byrne
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
A. Johnson
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
H. Toffolo
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
A. John
Missing Fixture Upper-Body Injury
OUT
-
N. Berchimas
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT