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LITHUANIA › A LYGA
19.10.2026 15:45
Marijampole Football Arena
Referee: D. Rumsas
Suduva Marijampole
Match Timeline
Kauno Žalgiris
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
M. Chajia
Suduva Marijampole
🟨
51'
V. Slivka
Kauno Žalgiris
🟨
55'
S. Lawson
Suduva Marijampole
🔄
58'
M. Burba ↔ F. Ourega
Kauno Žalgiris
🔄
67'
L. I. Kastrati ↔ N. Iyobosa Edokpolor
Kauno Žalgiris
🔄
67'
M. Konatar ↔ J. Moutachy
Kauno Žalgiris
🔄
70'
F. Steponavicius ↔ O. Haydary
Suduva Marijampole
🔄
70'
I. Seck ↔ Y. Omori
Suduva Marijampole
🔄
82'
G. Debeljuh ↔ G. Sirgedas
Kauno Žalgiris
🔄
82'
L. Krekovic ↔ Renan Oliveira
Kauno Žalgiris
🔄
83'
M. Chajia ↔ M. Mikulenas
Suduva Marijampole
🔄
87'
T. Milasius ↔ A. Zivanovic
Suduva Marijampole
⚽
90+3'
Renan Oliveira
Kauno Žalgiris
🟨
90+4'
A. Kalik
Kauno Žalgiris

Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds 3.88
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.16
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
3.88 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.16 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Suduva Marijampole Win 53.3%
Draw 9.5%
Kauno Žalgiris Win 37.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Suduva Marijampole1.3
Kauno Žalgiris1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
WWDLW
57 GF / 44 GA
Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris
WLDWL
80 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
19
BTTS Yes
19
20
Over 2.5
26
0
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole 37 matches
Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris 45 matches
Suduva Marijampole Statistic Kauno Žalgiris
18 Wins 24
12 Draws 11
7 Losses 10
57 Goals For 80
44 Goals Against 42
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
19 BTTS Yes 19
28 Over 1.5 33
20 Over 2.5 26
10 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 21
10 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 2.67
0 Total Shots 6.11
0 Corners 3
0% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kauno Žalgiris. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kauno Žalgiris look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kauno Žalgiris having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Suduva Marijampole Analysis

Placed 2 with 50 points from 29 outings, Suduva Marijampole continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses, while the 39:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Kauno Žalgiris Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 51 points from 28 games, Kauno Žalgiris bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 14 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 56:20, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Suduva Marijampole won 4 times, Kauno Žalgiris won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:24 from Suduva Marijampole's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Suduva Marijampole - / Kauno Žalgiris 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Suduva Marijampole wins 4, draws 7, Kauno Žalgiris wins 4

Standings

A Lyga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 9 5 57:20 37 54
W W L W W
2 30 15 5 10 49:35 14 50
W W L W D
3 30 13 11 6 39:30 9 50
L L D D L
4 29 13 7 9 46:38 8 46
D W W L W
5 29 11 8 10 33:30 3 41
L W L L D
6 29 10 9 10 39:43 -4 39
D L L D L
7 29 10 5 14 31:44 -13 35
W L W W W
8 30 4 14 12 32:52 -20 26
L D D L D
9 29 3 8 18 24:58 -34 17
L D L L L
10 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
L L L L L