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22.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Referee: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico
Puebla
Match Timeline
Monterrey
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
17'
D. Rossi · Assist: L. Ocampos
Monterrey
⚽
31'
H. Cuypers
Monterrey
⚽
34'
L. Ocampos · Assist: O. Torres
Monterrey
🔄
46'
M. Tomas ↔ E. Armenta
Puebla
🔄
46'
H. Jurado ↔ O. F. Moreno Villegas
Puebla
🔄
46'
C. Salcedo ↔ A. Aceves
Monterrey
🔄
56'
E. Mustre ↔ L. Hernandez
Puebla
🔄
57'
O. Pineda ↔ R. de la Rosa
Monterrey
🔄
57'
H. Cuypers ↔ L. Orellano
Monterrey
🔄
58'
D. Rossi ↔ I. Fimbres
Monterrey
⚽
61'
R. de la Rosa · Assist: O. Torres
Monterrey
🔄
65'
A. Ramirez ↔ I. Maestro
Puebla
⚽
66'
F. Almada
Puebla
🔄
76'
L. Ocampos ↔ J. Corona
Monterrey
🔄
79'
I. Moreno ↔ J. R. Pachuca Martinez
Puebla
🟨
90+1'
Ricardo Chávez
Monterrey
🟨
90'
Luca Orellano
Monterrey

Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Puebla Win 41.1%
Draw 31.2%
Monterrey Win 27.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Puebla1.3
Monterrey1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Puebla Puebla
D D L D L
2 GF / 4 GA
Monterrey Monterrey
W D W L W
8 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
9
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
11
4.17
Shots on Goal
5.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Puebla Puebla 15 matches
Monterrey Monterrey 20 matches
Puebla Statistic Monterrey
6 Wins 10
4 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
20 Goals For 37
20 Goals Against 25
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
9 BTTS Yes 14
10 Over 1.5 18
6 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4.17 Shots On Goal 5.8
12.83 Total Shots 16.07
4.5 Corners 5.53
42.6% Ball Possession 55.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Monterrey's more proactive style and Puebla's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Monterrey. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla sit 9 with 15 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 12:13 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Tomás (2 goals), E. Gómez (1 goals), I. Maestro Puch (1 goals), with creative support from A. Herrera (2 assists), E. Gómez (1 assists), I. Maestro Puch (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Monterrey Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Monterrey have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, while the 17:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (2 goals), H. Cuypers (2 goals), with creative support from Óliver Torres (2 assists), L. Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Puebla won 1 times, Monterrey won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:24 from Puebla's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (72.3%)
Predicted formations: Puebla 4-2-3-1 / Monterrey 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Puebla wins 1, draws 5, Monterrey wins 8

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 5 2 36:21 15 29
D D L W W
2 15 8 5 2 25:14 11 29
W W W D D
3 15 9 2 4 34:24 10 29
W W W W D
4 15 8 3 4 26:26 0 27
W W L W D
5 15 6 6 3 31:21 10 24
D D D D L
6 15 5 7 3 25:21 4 22
D D W D D
7 15 6 4 5 22:20 2 22
L D W L D
8 15 7 1 7 21:20 1 22
W L W W W
9 14 6 3 5 26:21 5 21
D L W W D
10 15 5 5 5 22:24 -2 20
W D L W D
11 14 6 2 6 18:21 -3 20
L L L L W
12 15 5 4 6 25:19 6 19
W W L L D
13 15 5 4 6 19:23 -4 19
L W W D L
14 15 4 4 7 17:23 -6 16
L L L D D
15 15 3 6 6 15:22 -7 15
L D L D W
16 15 3 5 7 16:24 -8 14
L L W L L
17 15 2 4 9 16:28 -12 10
L D L L D
18 15 2 2 11 12:34 -22 8
W D L L D
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)