Login Register
MEXICO › LIGA MX
22.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca vs Club Tijuana Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 65.1%
Draw 4.6%
Club Tijuana Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.86
Club Tijuana1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
49 GF / 30 GA
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana
WLDWL
19 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.23
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
14
BTTS Yes
8
16
Over 2.5
7
6.26
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 22 matches
Club Tijuana Club Tijuana 13 matches
Toluca Statistic Club Tijuana
10 Wins 5
5 Draws 5
7 Losses 3
49 Goals For 19
30 Goals Against 17
2.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
14 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 9
16 Over 2.5 7
11 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
6.26 Shots On Goal 4.18
17.42 Total Shots 13.27
5.63 Corners 4.91
58.8% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toluca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Club Tijuana in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Tijuana having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Club Tijuana.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 20 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 25:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (3 goals), F. Viñas (3 goals), with creative support from Helinho (4 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Club Tijuana Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Club Tijuana have collected 15 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 15:14 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Mourad (4 goals), G. Mora (3 goals), I. Rivero (2 goals), with creative support from J. Vega (2 assists), G. Mora (1 assists), Adonis Preciado (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 7 times, Club Tijuana won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:21 from Toluca's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 7, draws 3, Club Tijuana wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)