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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
19.10.2026 18:00
Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Jong Ajax Win 27.6%
Draw 34.2%
De Graafschap Win 38.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jong Ajax1.86
De Graafschap2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
WWDLW
13 GF / 28 GA
De Graafschap De Graafschap
WLDWL
26 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.63
2.55
Average Goals Conceded
2.88
6
BTTS Yes
14
7
Over 2.5
14
5.3
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 11 matches
De Graafschap De Graafschap 16 matches
Jong Ajax Statistic De Graafschap
2 Wins 5
2 Draws 2
7 Losses 9
13 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 46
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
2.55 Avg Goals Conceded 2.88
6 BTTS Yes 14
9 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 1
5.3 Shots On Goal 4.3
14.4 Total Shots 14.6
5 Corners 4.6
51.7% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors De Graafschap. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jong Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and De Graafschap in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward De Graafschap having the stronger overall control. Jong Ajax have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Jong Ajax Analysis

With 8 points from 10 games and a place of 18, Jong Ajax still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 13:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Pugno (5 goals), E. Ünüvar (5 goals), P. Nash (2 goals), with creative support from D. Pugno (2 assists), P. Nash (2 assists), Alejandro Monserrate (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

De Graafschap Analysis

De Graafschap approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 11 points from 10 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 13:23 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Kania (4 goals), D. Warmerdam (2 goals), Bjorn van Zijl (2 goals), with creative support from F. de Jong (3 assists), N. Martens (3 assists), Gabriele Finocchiaro (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Jong Ajax won 5 times, De Graafschap won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:24 from Jong Ajax's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (72.4%)
Predicted formations: Jong Ajax 4-3-3 / De Graafschap 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jong Ajax wins 5, draws 4, De Graafschap wins 5

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 31:12 19 25
W D W L W
2 10 7 1 2 22:7 15 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 26:14 12 21
W W L W W
4 10 6 1 3 22:18 4 19
W D W L L
5 10 5 2 3 20:19 1 17
W D W W L
6 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
D L W D W
7 10 5 1 4 13:20 -7 16
L L W L L
8 10 5 0 5 22:17 5 15
W L W L W
9 10 3 5 2 19:15 4 14
L D L W W
10 10 4 2 4 15:15 0 14
L D L W L
11 10 4 1 5 22:18 4 13
L W D L W
12 10 3 4 3 15:17 -2 13
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:15 0 12
W W L W L
14 10 3 2 5 14:18 -4 11
W D L W L
15 10 3 2 5 15:22 -7 11
L D L W W
16 10 3 2 5 13:23 -10 11
W D W L W
17 10 2 3 5 16:19 -3 9
L D L L W
18 10 2 2 6 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
19 10 2 2 6 13:27 -14 8
L D W L L
20 10 2 1 7 16:23 -7 7
L L W W D
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