WORLD UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
30.04.2026 19:00
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Referee: Anthony Taylor, England
SC Braga
Match Timeline
SC Freiburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
D. E. Tiknaz · Assist: V. Gomez
SC Braga
🟨
16'
Vítor Carvalho
SC Braga
16'
V. Grifo · Assist: J. Beste
SC Freiburg
🟨
18'
Vincenzo Grifo
SC Freiburg
🔄
26'
R. Horta ↔ M. Dorgeles
SC Braga
VAR
45'
Gustaf Lagerbielke
SC Braga
🟨
45+1'
Philipp Lienhart
SC Freiburg
🟨
57'
Victor Gómez
SC Braga
🟨
72'
Jordy Makengo
SC Freiburg
🔄
72'
R. Zalazar ↔ F. Navarro
SC Braga
🔄
81'
Y. Suzuki ↔ L. Holer
SC Freiburg
🔄
81'
V. Grifo ↔ D. Scherhant
SC Freiburg
90'
M. Dorgeles
SC Braga

SC Braga vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
SC Braga Win 42.9%
Draw 17.8%
SC Freiburg Win 39.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Braga1.69
SC Freiburg1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
SC Braga SC Braga
WWDLW
93 GF / 43 GA
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
WLDWL
65 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.51
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
22
BTTS Yes
23
27
Over 2.5
25
4.33
Shots on Goal
4.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

SC Braga SC Braga 49 matches
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 43 matches
SC Braga Statistic SC Freiburg
28 Wins 20
12 Draws 9
9 Losses 14
93 Goals For 65
43 Goals Against 59
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
22 BTTS Yes 23
35 Over 1.5 32
27 Over 2.5 25
16 Over 3.5 14
23 Clean Sheets 11
6 Failed To Score 12
4.33 Shots On Goal 4.53
10.47 Total Shots 12.81
4.67 Corners 4.44
54.7% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. SC Braga appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward SC Freiburg. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with SC Braga expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and SC Freiburg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SC Freiburg having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SC Freiburg. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

SC Braga Analysis

SC Braga come into this tie placed 6 in their league with 17 points from 8 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 11:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on R. Zalazar (6 goals), G. Martinez (5 goals), Fran Navarro (4 goals), with creative support from R. Horta (5 assists), R. Zalazar (2 assists), S. Vidigal (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Barisic, Vitor Carvalho, S. Niakate, Gabriel Moscardo unavailable.

SC Freiburg Analysis

SC Freiburg come into this tie placed 7 in their league with 17 points from 8 matches. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 10:4 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by V. Grifo (4 goals), Y. Suzuki (4 goals), I. Matanovic (3 goals), with creative support from V. Grifo (3 assists), J. Beste (3 assists), Y. Suzuki (2 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with J. Makengo, P. Osterhage unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, SC Braga won 1 times, SC Freiburg won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from SC Braga's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
Predicted formations: SC Braga 3-4-1-2 / SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: SC Braga 7, SC Freiburg 2
H2H summary: SC Braga wins 1, draws 0, SC Freiburg wins 1

Standings

UEFA Europa League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:5 13 21
W W W W L
2 8 7 0 1 14:6 8 21
W W W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W D W L W
4 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W L W W W
5 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W D W W D
6 8 5 2 1 11:5 6 17
D W W D L
7 8 5 2 1 10:4 6 17
L W W D W
8 8 5 1 2 13:6 7 16
D W W W W
9 8 5 1 2 11:7 4 16
W W L W W
10 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W D W W D
11 8 5 0 3 15:9 6 15
W L W W W
12 8 4 3 1 12:11 1 15
L D W D W
13 8 4 2 2 15:7 8 14
W L W W D
14 8 3 5 0 8:3 5 14
W D D D D
15 8 4 2 2 7:6 1 14
D W W W W
16 8 4 1 3 15:11 4 13
D W L L W
17 8 3 3 2 17:14 3 12
L W D D W
18 8 4 0 4 12:9 3 12
W L L W L
19 8 3 3 2 10:7 3 12
D L W D D
20 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
D D D W W
21 8 3 2 3 13:15 -2 11
W D L W L
22 8 3 1 4 12:15 -3 10
W L D W L
23 8 3 1 4 12:16 -4 10
L W L L L
24 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L D L D D
25 8 3 0 5 10:16 -6 9
L L W L L
26 8 2 1 5 5:11 -6 7
W L L L D
27 8 2 1 5 9:16 -7 7
D L W L L
28 8 2 1 5 6:14 -8 7
D L L L L
29 8 2 0 6 11:15 -4 6
L W L L L
30 8 2 0 6 9:13 -4 6
L L L L W
31 8 2 0 6 10:15 -5 6
L W L L W
32 8 1 1 6 5:14 -9 4
L W L D L
33 8 1 0 7 7:15 -8 3
L W L L L
34 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L L D
35 8 0 1 7 4:15 -11 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 2:22 -20 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)