ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Eva Peron
Referee: P. Echavarria
Sarmiento Junin
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
M. Martinez
Sarmiento Junin
31'
M. Fernandez · Assist: M. Fernandez
Independ. Rivadavia
31'
M. Fernandez
Independ. Rivadavia
37'
J. Mavilla
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
41'
M. Martinez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
46'
T. Bottari ↔ J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
46'
M. Fernandez ↔ A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
46'
R. Atencio ↔ L. Sequeira
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
53'
J. Contrera ↔ U. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
64'
L. Bucca ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
73'
J. Marabel ↔ Diego Churin
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
73'
J. Mavilla ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
79'
F. Sartori ↔ J. M. Elordi
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
87'
J. Herrera ↔ G. Arturia
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
90+3'
I. Villalba
Independ. Rivadavia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.3%
Odds 2.36
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.64
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.3%
2.36
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.05
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.64
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.3%
1.49
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Sarmiento Junin Win 28.2%
Draw 4.5%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 67.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarmiento Junin0.9
Independ. Rivadavia1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WWDLW
18 GF / 28 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
50 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
8
BTTS Yes
18
9
Over 2.5
14
3.61
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 20 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 27 matches
Sarmiento Junin Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
7 Wins 18
1 Draws 6
12 Losses 3
18 Goals For 50
28 Goals Against 24
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
8 BTTS Yes 18
12 Over 1.5 21
9 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 3
3.61 Shots On Goal 5
10.17 Total Shots 13.92
3.72 Corners 4.28
48.1% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Sarmiento Junin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sarmiento Junin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independ. Rivadavia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Sarmiento Junin sit 11 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independ. Rivadavia. Sarmiento Junin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

With 19 points from 16 games and a place of 11, Sarmiento Junin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats with a 13:20 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Junior Marabel (3 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), Pablo Magnin (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (2 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Placed 1 with 34 points from 16 outings, Independ. Rivadavia continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 29:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Leonel Bucca (3 goals), Fabrizio Sartori (2 goals), Alex Arce (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (3 assists), Luciano Gómez (1 assists), Leonard Costa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Sarmiento Junin won 4 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Sarmiento Junin's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.42 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2 / Independ. Rivadavia 5-3-2
H2H summary: Sarmiento Junin wins 4, draws 4, Independ. Rivadavia wins 4
Stats
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
6
3 Corner Kicks 7
16 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Goal 7
3 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 6
5 Shots insidebox 11
4 Shots outsidebox 8
6 Goalkeeper Saves 2
205 Total passes 441
121 Passes accurate 366
0.55 expected_goals 1.54
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sarmiento Junin
Formation
Independ. Rivadavia
T. Ayala
T. Ayala
S. Salle
S. Salle
R. Orihuela
R. Orihuela
J. Insaurralde
J. Insaurralde
L. Suarez
L. Suarez
J. Contrera
J. Contrera
C. Zabala
C. Zabala
M. Martinez
M. Martinez
J. Mavilla
J. Mavilla
J. Herrera
J. Herrera
J. Marabel
J. Marabel
N. Bolcato
N. Bolcato
A. Riep
A. Riep
I. Villalba
I. Villalba
A. Osella
A. Osella
D. Crego
D. Crego
K. A. Vazquez
K. A. Vazquez
T. Bottari
T. Bottari
L. Bucca
L. Bucca
R. Atencio
R. Atencio
M. Fernandez
⚽ 2 🎯
M. Fernandez
F. Sartori
F. Sartori
Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
T. Ayala
G
8
S. Salle
D
44
R. Orihuela
D
2
J. Insaurralde
D
3
L. Suarez
D
19
J. Contrera
↓ 53'
M
15
C. Zabala
M
16
M. Martinez
⚽ 12' 🟨 41'
M
21
J. Mavilla
⚽ 37' ↓ 73'
M
24
J. Herrera
↓ 87'
F
27
J. Marabel
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
1
I. Arboleda
G
7
P. Magnin
F
20
U. Gimenez
↑ 53'
D
23
E. Gimenez
M
10
J. Renteria
M
9
Diego Churin
↑ 73'
F
11
G. Gonzalez
↑ 73'
F
5
M. Garcia
M
6
G. Arturia
↑ 87'
D
33
G. Diaz
D
29
T. Santamaria
D
35
F. Alaggia
M
Independ. Rivadavia 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
30
N. Bolcato
G
20
A. Riep
D
40
I. Villalba
🟨 90+3'
D
13
A. Osella
D
27
D. Crego
D
32
K. A. Vazquez
M
5
T. Bottari
↓ 46'
M
8
L. Bucca
↓ 64'
M
19
R. Atencio
↓ 46'
M
10
M. Fernandez
⚽ 31' ⚽ 31' 🎯 31' ↓ 46'
F
43
F. Sartori
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
21
E. F. Gomez Riga
G
7
V. Ramis
F
25
J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
↑ 46'
M
2
L. Costa
D
34
S. Moreyra
M
11
G. Rios
↑ 64'
M
42
S. Studer
D
55
M. Salvo
D
9
A. Arce
↑ 46'
F
3
J. M. Elordi
↑ 79'
D
77
L. Sequeira
↑ 46'
M
45
L. Sabato
F
Last matches: Sarmiento Junin
28.07.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Banfield
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Argentinos JRS
2
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Sarmiento Junin
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Belgrano Cordoba
0
4
L
25.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Tigre
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Rosario Central
1
2
L
13.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia L.P.
1
2
L
09.04.26
Cop
Sarmiento Junin
Tristan Suarez
1
0
W
02.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Barracas Central
2
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
River Plate
0
2
L
11.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
0
0
D
03.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
0
W
26.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Union Santa Fe
1
3
L
20.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Estudiantes L.P.
0
1
L
14.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Huracan
0
1
L
08.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Atletico Tucuman
2
1
W
04.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
30.01.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Banfield
1
0
W
26.01.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Argentinos JRS
0
1
L
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
30.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
12.07.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia M.
5
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
3
1
W
07.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
1
0
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Rosario Central
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.
3
2
W
12.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Barracas Central
1
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
River Plate
1
1
D
26.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Racing Club
1
1
D
H2H: Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia
04.02.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
2
1
L
26.05.24
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
1
L
25.05.19
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
2
0
W
19.05.19
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
0
1
W
13.03.19
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
0
0
D
18.03.18
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
0
1
W
05.10.14
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
0
2
W
09.08.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
15.05.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
14.11.13
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
3
1
L
20.04.13
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
0
L
20.10.12
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
Last matches: Sarmiento Junin
23.07.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Argentinos JRS
2
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Sarmiento Junin
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Tigre
1
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia L.P.
1
2
L
09.04.26
Cop
Sarmiento Junin
Tristan Suarez
1
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Aldosivi
2
0
W
11.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
0
0
D
03.03.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
0
W
26.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Union Santa Fe
1
3
L
08.02.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Atletico Tucuman
2
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Sarmiento Junin
Banfield
1
0
W
19.05.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Colegiales
3
0
W
05.05.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Sportivo Italiano
2
0
W
25.04.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Flandria
2
2
D
08.04.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Los Andes
0
0
D
31.03.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Brown DE Adrogue
2
2
D
21.03.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Deportivo Armenio
0
0
D
03.03.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Villa San Carlos
1
0
W
20.02.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Platense
1
0
W
05.02.12
Pri
Sarmiento Junin
Temperley
4
0
W
H2H at home: Sarmiento Junin
26.05.24
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
1
L
25.05.19
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
2
0
W
09.08.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
15.05.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
20.10.12
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.
3
2
W
26.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Racing Club
1
1
D
10.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
H2H away: Independ. Rivadavia
26.05.24
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
1
W
25.05.19
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
2
0
L
09.08.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
15.05.14
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
20.10.12
H2H
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.36
Draw 3.02
Home 3.59
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.13
Draw 2.01
Home 4.46
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.51
Over 1.75 1.66
Over 2.0 1.93
Over 2.25 2.29
Over 2.5 2.64
Over 3.5 5.26
Under 0.5 6.97
Under 1.5 2.67
Under 1.75 2.31
Under 2.0 1.95
Under 2.25 1.68
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 3.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 2.90
Home 3.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 1.95
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.20
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.00
Home 3.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.98
Draw 1.86
Home 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.59
Draw 2.21
Home 3.76
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 0.75 1.09
Over 1.0 1.12
Over 1.25 1.31
Over 1.5 1.48
Over 1.75 1.62
Over 2.0 1.78
Over 2.25 2.14
Over 2.5 2.43
Over 2.75 2.74
Over 3.0 3.58
Over 3.25 3.94
Over 3.5 4.30
Over 3.75 5.40
Over 4.0 7.80
Over 4.5 8.40
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.05
Under 0.75 5.62
Under 1.0 5.05
Under 1.25 3.33
Under 1.5 2.59
Under 1.75 2.30
Under 2.0 1.89
Under 2.25 1.71
Under 2.5 1.56
Under 2.75 1.35
Under 3.0 1.21
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 3.75 1.09
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.10
Home 3.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 1.96
Home 3.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.30
Home 3.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.47
Over 1.75 1.61
Over 2.0 1.84
Over 2.25 2.17
Over 2.5 2.48
Over 2.75 2.95
Over 3.0 3.95
Over 3.5 4.80
Over 4.5 9.50
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.60
Under 1.75 2.25
Under 2.0 1.91
Under 2.25 1.65
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.03

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L W D L D
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L L L L W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W W W L W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D L L W
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L W W W W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
W W L L W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
D L W L W
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L D W L W
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W W L D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
W L D L D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L L L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D W L W D
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D W D W D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L D D L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
D L W L L
Knockout Phase