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03.08.2026 19:45
Estadio Eva Peron
Referee: P. Echavarria
Sarmiento Junin
Match Timeline
Independ. Rivadavia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
M. Martinez
Sarmiento Junin
VAR
28'
Leonel Bucca
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
31'
Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
31'
M. Fernandez
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
37'
J. Mavilla
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
41'
Mauricio Martínez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
46'
T. Bottari ↔ J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
46'
M. Fernandez ↔ A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
46'
R. Atencio ↔ L. Sequeira
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
53'
J. Contrera ↔ U. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
64'
L. Bucca ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
73'
J. Marabel ↔ Diego Churin
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
73'
J. Mavilla ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
79'
F. Sartori ↔ J. M. Elordi
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
87'
J. Herrera ↔ G. Arturia
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
90+3'
Iván Villalba
Independ. Rivadavia

Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sarmiento Junin Win 28.2%
Draw 4.5%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 67.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarmiento Junin0.9
Independ. Rivadavia1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WWDLW
18 GF / 28 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
50 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
8
BTTS Yes
18
9
Over 2.5
14
3.61
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 20 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 27 matches
Sarmiento Junin Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
7 Wins 18
1 Draws 6
12 Losses 3
18 Goals For 50
28 Goals Against 24
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
8 BTTS Yes 18
12 Over 1.5 21
9 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 3
3.61 Shots On Goal 5
10.17 Total Shots 13.92
3.72 Corners 4.28
48.1% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independ. Rivadavia's more proactive style and Sarmiento Junin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sarmiento Junin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independ. Rivadavia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Sarmiento Junin sit 11 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independ. Rivadavia. Sarmiento Junin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

With 19 points from 16 games and a place of 11, Sarmiento Junin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats with a 13:20 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Junior Marabel (3 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), Pablo Magnin (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (2 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Placed 1 with 34 points from 16 outings, Independ. Rivadavia continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 29:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Leonel Bucca (3 goals), Fabrizio Sartori (2 goals), Alex Arce (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (3 assists), Luciano Gómez (1 assists), Leonard Costa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sarmiento Junin won 5 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:9 from Sarmiento Junin's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.54 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2 / Independ. Rivadavia 5-3-2
H2H summary: Sarmiento Junin wins 5, draws 4, Independ. Rivadavia wins 4

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
L D W W L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W L W W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
D W L D D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W D W W D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W W D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D D D W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L W W W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L W W L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L D W L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase