23.08.2026 17:45
Estadio Eva Peron
Referee: N. Lamolina
Sarmiento Junin
Match Timeline
Estudiantes L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Lucas Alario
Estudiantes L.P.
18'
M. Martinez · Assist: J. Mavilla
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
26'
Julian Contrera
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
40'
Joaquin Pereyra
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
46'
E. Meza ↔ E. Mancuso
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
46'
Perez Fabricio ↔ E. Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
54'
Lucas Suárez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
58'
J. Contrera ↔ U. Gimenez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
65'
J. Pereyra ↔ J. Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
65'
B. Aguirre ↔ J. Burgos
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
68'
J. Herrera ↔ Diego Churin
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
68'
J. Mavilla ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
75'
A. Castro ↔ G. Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
80'
G. Gonzalez · Assist: J. Marabel
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
82'
Joaquín Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
82'
J. Marabel ↔ G. Arturia
Sarmiento Junin
VAR
85'
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Estudiantes L.P.
86'
Joaquín Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
90+3'
Eros Mancuso
Estudiantes L.P.

Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sarmiento Junin Win 34.4%
Draw 18.2%
Estudiantes L.P. Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sarmiento Junin0.86
Estudiantes L.P.1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WWDLW
24 GF / 30 GA
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WLDWL
43 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.59
10
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
10
3.71
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 23 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 32 matches
Sarmiento Junin Statistic Estudiantes L.P.
10 Wins 16
1 Draws 8
12 Losses 8
24 Goals For 43
30 Goals Against 19
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.59
10 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 11
3.71 Shots On Goal 5.03
10.52 Total Shots 13.8
3.95 Corners 4.43
46.3% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Estudiantes L.P.'s more proactive style and Sarmiento Junin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Estudiantes L.P.. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sarmiento Junin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Estudiantes L.P. in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estudiantes L.P. having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Estudiantes L.P. carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 31 points while Sarmiento Junin sit 11 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

With 19 points from 16 games and a place of 11, Sarmiento Junin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 13:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Junior Marabel (5 goals), Cristian Zabala (1 goals), Pablo Magnin (1 goals), with creative support from Junior Marabel (2 assists), Cristian Zabala (1 assists), Pablo Magnin (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. sit 1 with 31 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 19:7, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Adolfo Gaich (3 goals), Alexis Castro (2 goals), Mikel Amondarain (1 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (3 assists), Mikel Amondarain (1 assists), Guido Carrillo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Sarmiento Junin won 3 times, Estudiantes L.P. won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Sarmiento Junin's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.8%)
Predicted formations: Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2 / Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sarmiento Junin wins 3, draws 1, Estudiantes L.P. wins 6

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase