BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Do MorumBIS
Referee: C. Deretti
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Coritiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Tiago Coser
Coritiba
🔄
20'
Tinga ↔ Joao Pedro Chermont
Coritiba
🟨
41'
Pablo Maia
Sao Paulo
43'
Pablo Maia · Assist: Victor Sa
Sao Paulo
57'
Tiago Coser · Assist: Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🔄
63'
Newton ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
63'
Victor Sa ↔ Artur
Sao Paulo
🔄
66'
Thiago Santos ↔ Tissi
Coritiba
🟨
68'
Lucas Ramon
Sao Paulo
🔄
74'
S. Gomez ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
🔄
74'
Fernando Sobral ↔ Keno
Coritiba
🔄
74'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
🔄
78'
Wendell ↔ Iago Borduchi
Sao Paulo
🔄
78'
Luciano ↔ Ryan Francisco
Sao Paulo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 58.4%
Draw 13.6%
Coritiba Win 28.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.27
Coritiba1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
26 GF / 25 GA
Coritiba Coritiba
WLDWL
27 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
13
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
10
3.95
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 21 matches
Coritiba Coritiba 22 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Coritiba
7 Wins 8
5 Draws 6
9 Losses 8
26 Goals For 27
25 Goals Against 29
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
13 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 7
3.95 Shots On Goal 3.36
12.05 Total Shots 10.86
6.38 Corners 3.45
53.5% Ball Possession 39.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Coritiba. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 12 with 26 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 26:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Luciano (5 goals), Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Coritiba Analysis

With 27 points from 21 games and a place of 11, Coritiba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 25:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Breno Lopes (8 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (8 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 6 times, Coritiba won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1 / Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 3, Coritiba 3
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 6, draws 7, Coritiba wins 2

Lineups

Sao Paulo
Formation
Coritiba
Rafael
Rafael
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon
Robert Arboleda
Robert Arboleda
D. Duarte
D. Duarte
Wendell
Wendell
Newton
Newton
Pablo Maia
Pablo Maia
Marcos Antonio
Marcos Antonio
Luciano
Luciano
Victor Sa
🎯
Victor Sa
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri
Pedro Morisco
Pedro Morisco
Tinga
Tinga
Tiago Coser
Tiago Coser
Jacy
Jacy
Bruno Melo
Bruno Melo
Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos
S. Gomez
S. Gomez
J. Lavega
J. Lavega
Fernando Sobral
Fernando Sobral
Breno Lopes
🎯
Breno Lopes
Pedro Rocha
Pedro Rocha
Sao Paulo 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
23
Rafael
19
Lucas Ramon
🟨 68'
5
Robert Arboleda
22
D. Duarte
18
Wendell
↓ 78'
28
Newton
↓ 63'
29
Pablo Maia
⚽ 43' 🟨 41'
8
Marcos Antonio
10
Luciano
↓ 78'
27
Victor Sa
🎯 43' ↓ 63'
9
Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
20
Buta
35
Sabino
54
Luis Osorio
12
Iago Borduchi
↑ 78'
80
Cauly
94
Danielzinho
48
Djhordney
11
Ferreira
↑ 63'
49
Ryan Francisco
↑ 78'
37
Artur
↑ 63'
43
G. Santana
Coritiba 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Pedro Morisco
2
Tinga
↓ 20'
23
Tiago Coser
⚽ 57' 🟨 5'
55
Jacy
26
Bruno Melo
21
Thiago Santos
↓ 66'
19
S. Gomez
↓ 74'
7
J. Lavega
88
Fernando Sobral
↓ 74'
77
Breno Lopes
🎯 57'
32
Pedro Rocha
↓ 74'
Substitutes
13
Keiller
3
Maicon
6
Felipe Jonatan
44
Joao Pedro Chermont
↑ 20'
4
Rodrigo Moledo
36
Vini Paulista
↑ 74'
50
Tissi
↑ 66'
20
Keno
↑ 74'
28
Fabinho
78
Renato Marques
18
Paulo Roberto
↑ 74'
33
D. Alves
Last matches: Sao Paulo
08.08.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
1
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
Last matches: Coritiba
08.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
H2H: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
16.08.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
25.02.26
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
W
27.09.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
2
1
W
29.04.23
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
20.10.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
W
09.06.22
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
23.01.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
04.10.20
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
26.11.17
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
03.08.17
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
2
L
28.08.16
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
0
0
D
26.05.16
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
25.10.15
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
12.07.15
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
W
18.09.14
H2H
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
3
1
L
Last matches: Sao Paulo
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Sao Paulo
16.08.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
27.09.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
2
1
W
20.10.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
W
23.01.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
03.08.17
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
2
L
28.08.16
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
0
0
D
12.07.15
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
W
Last matches: Coritiba
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
H2H away: Coritiba
16.08.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
27.09.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
2
1
L
20.10.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
L
23.01.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
1
D
03.08.17
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
2
W
28.08.16
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
0
0
D
12.07.15
H2H
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
3
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
8 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Sao Paulo 3 missing
-
E. Diaz
Questionable Personal Reasons
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Lucas Moura
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
Coritiba 3 missing
-
B. Ocampo
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Pedro Rangel
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Josue
Questionable Injury
OUT