ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Pedro Bidegain
Referee: Pablo Dovalo, Argentina
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Milton Valenzuela
Independiente
16'
M. Abaldo · Assist: M. Gutierrez
Independiente
🟨
20'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟨
39'
Manuel Insaurralde
San Lorenzo
🟨
41'
Kevin Lomónaco
Independiente
🔄
46'
F. Gulli ↔ N. Barrios
San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
M. De Ritis ↔ J. Rattalino
San Lorenzo
54'
M. Gutierrez · Assist: M. Abaldo
Independiente
🔄
65'
I. Marcone ↔ Rodrigo Fernandez
Independiente
🔄
65'
S. Montiel ↔ L. Millan
Independiente
72'
E. Herrera
San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
M. Reali ↔ A. Ladstatter
San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
K. Lomonaco ↔ N. Freire
Independiente
🔄
80'
M. Gutierrez ↔ J. Fedorco
Independiente
🔄
81'
M. Insaurralde ↔ D. Herazo
San Lorenzo
🔄
89'
G. Avalos ↔ F. Tempone
Independiente
🟨
90+7'
Rodrigo Auzmendi
San Lorenzo
🟨
90+3'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟥
90+3'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟨
90'
Juan Fedorco
Independiente
🟨
90'
Sebastián Valdez
Independiente

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 66.5%
Draw 0%
Independiente Win 33.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.2
Independiente1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
18 GF / 12 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
26 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
5
BTTS Yes
11
3
Over 2.5
6
3.33
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 16 matches
Independiente Independiente 16 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Independiente
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 4
18 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 21
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
5 BTTS Yes 11
7 Over 1.5 14
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 1
3.33 Shots On Goal 4
9.4 Total Shots 13
3.8 Corners 5.8
49.6% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Independiente in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo sit 15 with 118 points after 88 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with a 0:0 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Cuello (4 goals), G. Rodriguez (2 goals), L. Vietto (2 goals), with creative support from A. Cuello (3 assists), Facundo Gulli (2 assists), M. De Ritis (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente sit 10 with 131 points after 88 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Avalos (9 goals), M. Abaldo (4 goals), I. Malcorra (1 goals), with creative support from G. Avalos (5 assists), I. Malcorra (3 assists), S. Arias (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 3 times, Independiente won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 3-4-2-1 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 3, draws 6, Independiente wins 3
Stats
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
Independiente Independiente
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
5
7 Corner Kicks 4
13 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 2
58% Ball Possession 42%
25 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Goal 5
11 Shots off Goal 3
7 Blocked Shots 5
16 Shots insidebox 11
9 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 6
463 Total passes 348
384 Passes accurate 264
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

San Lorenzo
Formation
Independiente
J. Devecchi
J. Devecchi
E. Herrera
E. Herrera
J. Romana
J. Romana
L. Montenegro
L. Montenegro
N. Tripichio
N. Tripichio
M. Reali
M. Reali
M. Insaurralde
M. Insaurralde
F. Gulli
F. Gulli
M. De Ritis
M. De Ritis
R. Auzmendi
R. Auzmendi
A. Cuello
A. Cuello
R. Rey
R. Rey
S. Arias
S. Arias
K. Lomonaco
K. Lomonaco
S. Valdez
S. Valdez
M. Valenzuela
M. Valenzuela
M. Perez Curci
M. Perez Curci
I. Marcone
I. Marcone
M. Gutierrez
🎯
M. Gutierrez
S. Montiel
S. Montiel
M. Abaldo
🎯
M. Abaldo
G. Avalos
G. Avalos
San Lorenzo 3-5-2
Starting XI
25
J. Devecchi
G
32
E. Herrera
⚽ 72'
D
4
J. Romana
D
55
L. Montenegro
D
24
N. Tripichio
M
11
M. Reali
↓ 80'
M
8
M. Insaurralde
↓ 81' 🟨 39'
M
10
F. Gulli
↓ 46'
M
6
M. De Ritis
↓ 46'
M
29
R. Auzmendi
🟨 90+7'
F
9
A. Cuello
🟨 20' 🟨 90+3' 🟥 90+3'
F
Substitutes
20
F. Altamirano
G
18
D. Herazo
↑ 81'
F
34
F. Lopez
D
5
I. Perruzzi
M
28
N. Barrios
↑ 46'
M
16
G. Corujo
D
26
G. Abrego
M
17
G. Rodriguez
F
44
M. Hernandez
F
3
T. Rodriguez Pagano
D
13
J. Rattalino
↑ 46'
M
14
A. Ladstatter
↑ 80'
D
Independiente 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
33
R. Rey
G
4
S. Arias
D
26
K. Lomonaco
↓ 80' 🟨 41'
D
36
S. Valdez
🟨 90'
D
3
M. Valenzuela
🟨 8'
D
16
M. Perez Curci
M
23
I. Marcone
↓ 65'
M
28
M. Gutierrez
⚽ 54' 🎯 16' ↓ 80'
M
7
S. Montiel
↓ 65'
M
19
M. Abaldo
⚽ 16' 🎯 54'
M
9
G. Avalos
↓ 89'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Blazquez
G
6
N. Freire
↑ 80'
D
43
F. Valdez
F
11
F. Mancuello
M
40
I. Malcorra
M
10
L. Cabral
M
29
L. Godoy
D
5
Rodrigo Fernandez
↑ 65'
M
13
J. Fedorco
↑ 80' 🟨 90'
D
8
L. Millan
↑ 65'
M
34
F. Tempone
↑ 89'
F
Last matches: San Lorenzo
10.05.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
River Plate
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Platense
1
0
W
20.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Newells Old Boys
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
25.03.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cop
San Lorenzo
Deportivo Rincon
5
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
2
5
L
11.03.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Talleres Cordoba
0
0
D
24.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Instituto Cordoba
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Union Santa Fe
0
0
D
08.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Huracan
0
1
L
31.01.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Gimnasia M.
1
0
W
23.01.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Lanus
2
3
L
Last matches: Independiente
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
H2H: San Lorenzo vs Independiente
02.05.26
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
L
21.09.25
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
08.03.25
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
L
03.08.24
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
01.04.23
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
04.06.22
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
1
D
05.12.21
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
26.04.20
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
03.11.19
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
L
02.02.19
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
04.04.18
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
0
1
W
20.11.16
H2H
Independiente
San Lorenzo
1
2
W
11.04.15
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
0
W
Last matches: San Lorenzo
20.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
21.03.26
Cop
San Lorenzo
Deportivo Rincon
5
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
2
5
L
24.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Instituto Cordoba
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
23.01.26
Lig
San Lorenzo
Lanus
2
3
L
H2H at home: San Lorenzo
02.05.26
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
L
08.03.25
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
L
01.04.23
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
04.06.22
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
1
D
26.04.20
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
02.02.19
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
11.04.15
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
0
W
Last matches: Independiente
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
H2H away: Independiente
02.05.26
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
W
08.03.25
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
2
W
01.04.23
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
04.06.22
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
1
D
26.04.20
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
02.02.19
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
0
0
D
11.04.15
H2H
San Lorenzo
Independiente
1
0
L

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L W D W W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
L D D D W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L D D W W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W L W D
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L D D L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L W D D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W D D L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D L W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L L L L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L W D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L L L D D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L D W L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D W D W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D W L L L
Knockout Phase