URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Osvaldo Roberto

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Racing Montevideo Win 65.3%
Draw 11%
Club Nacional Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Racing Montevideo1.29
Club Nacional1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WWDLW
27 GF / 17 GA
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WLDWL
42 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.45
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
11
BTTS Yes
17
6
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 22 matches
Club Nacional Club Nacional 29 matches
Racing Montevideo Statistic Club Nacional
11 Wins 13
8 Draws 4
3 Losses 12
27 Goals For 42
17 Goals Against 40
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
11 BTTS Yes 17
13 Over 1.5 22
6 Over 2.5 19
3 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 3
0 Total Shots 7.38
0 Corners 3.75
0% Ball Possession 29.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Racing Montevideo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Club Nacional in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Nacional having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Club Nacional.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Placed 3 with 41 points from 22 outings, Racing Montevideo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, while the 27:17 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Club Nacional Analysis

Club Nacional are currently 6 in the standings with 35 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 34:29 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Racing Montevideo won 0 times, Club Nacional won 12 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:30 from Racing Montevideo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Racing Montevideo 4-4-2 / Club Nacional 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Racing Montevideo wins 0, draws 3, Club Nacional wins 12
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
02.08.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
26.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
12.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
Last matches: Club Nacional
09.08.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
2
1
W
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
H2H: Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional
14.02.26
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
07.09.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
0
L
14.06.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
16.03.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
08.11.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
2
L
03.05.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
4
2
L
05.10.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
09.07.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
2
2
D
26.02.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
1
L
22.09.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
0
L
02.03.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
01.09.18
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
22.03.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
23.09.17
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
12.03.17
H2H
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
2
L
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
02.08.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
02.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
20.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
29.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
0
0
D
13.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
4
L
17.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
1
0
W
H2H at home: Racing Montevideo
14.06.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
16.03.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
08.11.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
2
L
05.10.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
09.07.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
2
2
D
02.03.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
22.03.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
23.09.17
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
L
Last matches: Club Nacional
11.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
1
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
1
W
23.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
2
2
D
09.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
0
0
D
12.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
0
0
D
H2H away: Club Nacional
14.06.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
W
16.03.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
W
08.11.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
2
W
05.10.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
2
W
09.07.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
2
2
D
02.03.19
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
22.03.18
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
W
23.09.17
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
1
W

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 11 5 7 29:25 4 38
W W W W D
5 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
6 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
7 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 23 6 9 8 19:21 -2 27
L W L D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 23 4 10 9 22:31 -9 22
L D L D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15 23 6 4 13 15:34 -19 22
W L W W L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)