Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
56.9%
|
1.55 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
66.4%
|
1.67 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
63.9%
|
1.61 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.11 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.30 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Palmeiras
Bahia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Palmeiras
38 matches
Bahia
32 matches
| Palmeiras | Statistic | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wins | 14 |
| 12 | Draws | 10 |
| 5 | Losses | 8 |
| 62 | Goals For | 49 |
| 30 | Goals Against | 40 |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 0.79 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.25 |
| 22 | BTTS Yes | 21 |
| 26 | Over 1.5 | 27 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 17 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 15 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 5.13 | Shots On Goal | 4.8 |
| 15.82 | Total Shots | 14.27 |
| 6.13 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 53.9% | Ball Possession | 55.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. Bahia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bahia.
Palmeiras come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 57 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 47:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. López (7 goals), Maurício (6 goals), Vitor Roque (5 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), J. López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Jefte, Paulinho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Bahia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 46 points after 28 outings. The return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 43:35, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Luciano Juba (8 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), Jean Lucas (3 goals), with creative support from Éverton Ribeiro (4 assists), Rodrigo Nestor (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Leo Vieira, Michel Araujo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 7 times, Bahia won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Palmeiras's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57:25 | 32 | 61 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 |
Palmeiras
Home
|
28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
| 3 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45:34 | 11 | 50 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 4 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44:40 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 |
Bahia
Away
|
28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
| 7 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39:34 | 5 | 44 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 42 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34:33 | 1 | 37 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33:34 | -1 | 36 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 36 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42:47 | -5 | 35 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 34 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 33 |
D
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 24 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29:57 | -28 | 18 |
L
D
L
W
L
|