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BRAZIL › SERIE A
09.10.2026 00:30
Nubank Parque
Referee: Braulio da Silva Machado
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
José Manuel López · Assist: Alexander Barboza
Palmeiras
🟨
61'
Nicolas Acevedo
Bahia
🟨
64'
Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira
Palmeiras
🔄
65'
erick pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
65'
Nicolas Acevedo ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🔄
65'
Rodrigo Nestor ↔ Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
Bahia
🔄
69'
Vitor Roque ↔ Ramon Sosa
Palmeiras
🔄
69'
José Manuel López ↔ Jhon Arias
Palmeiras
🔄
82'
Cristian Olivera ↔ Mateo Naín Sanabria
Bahia
🔄
82'
Alejo Veliz ↔ Willian José
Bahia
🟨
87'
Jean Lucas
Bahia
🔄
87'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras

Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.4%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.9%
1.55 ▥
BTTS Yes
66.4%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.9%
1.61 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.11 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 56.9%
Draw 7.1%
Bahia Win 36%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.48
Bahia1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
62 GF / 30 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
49 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.53
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
22
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
17
5.13
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 38 matches
Bahia Bahia 32 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Bahia
21 Wins 14
12 Draws 10
5 Losses 8
62 Goals For 49
30 Goals Against 40
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
22 BTTS Yes 21
26 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 8
15 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 5
5.13 Shots On Goal 4.8
15.82 Total Shots 14.27
6.13 Corners 5.6
53.9% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. Bahia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bahia.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 57 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 47:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. López (7 goals), Maurício (6 goals), Vitor Roque (5 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), J. López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Jefte, Paulinho unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 46 points after 28 outings. The return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 43:35, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Luciano Juba (8 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), Jean Lucas (3 goals), with creative support from Éverton Ribeiro (4 assists), Rodrigo Nestor (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Leo Vieira, Michel Araujo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 7 times, Bahia won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Palmeiras's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Palmeiras 2, Bahia 2
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 7, draws 5, Bahia wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
4 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
5 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
6
Bahia Away
28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B