LATVIA VIRSLIGA
11.09.2026 14:00

Ogre United vs FK Liepaja Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds 1.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.4%
1.70
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.57
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 16.7%
Draw 10.9%
FK Liepaja Win 72.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.16
FK Liepaja1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
28 GF / 76 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
60 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.46
2.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
19
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
25
0
Shots on Goal
0.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 30 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 41 matches
Ogre United Statistic FK Liepaja
3 Wins 18
5 Draws 6
22 Losses 17
28 Goals For 60
76 Goals Against 62
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
2.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
19 BTTS Yes 24
27 Over 1.5 33
20 Over 2.5 25
14 Over 3.5 14
1 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0.67
0 Total Shots 2.67
0 Corners 1
0% Ball Possession 9.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FK Liepaja. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FK Liepaja carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 40 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Ogre United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 14 points from 27 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 26:71, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 40 points after 28 outings. They have recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, with a 39:41 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which underlines a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 0 times, FK Liepaja won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:9 from Ogre United's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / FK Liepaja 4-4-2
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 0, draws 0, FK Liepaja wins 3

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 22 4 2 68:20 48 70
D W D W W
2 28 20 6 2 82:28 54 66
D L D W W
3 28 17 5 6 45:27 18 56
W D W W W
4 29 12 5 12 39:41 -2 41
D W L W W
5 29 10 8 11 34:33 1 38
D L D W W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 29 8 7 14 32:48 -16 31
L W W L L
8 29 5 9 15 20:51 -31 24
L W L L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 28 3 5 20 27:73 -46 14
L L L L D