🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Sports Illustrated Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49%
Odds 2.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49%
2.42
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.55
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.1%
1.32
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 35%
Draw 16.1%
Nashville SC Win 49%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.33
Nashville SC1.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
43 GF / 54 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
55 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
1.77
2.16
Average Goals Conceded
0.74
18
BTTS Yes
13
19
Over 2.5
15
5
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 25 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 31 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Nashville SC
9 Wins 18
4 Draws 8
12 Losses 5
43 Goals For 55
54 Goals Against 23
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
2.16 Avg Goals Conceded 0.74
18 BTTS Yes 13
24 Over 1.5 18
19 Over 2.5 15
14 Over 3.5 11
2 Clean Sheets 14
5 Failed To Score 8
5 Shots On Goal 4
13.37 Total Shots 10.48
5.68 Corners 4.3
50% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nashville SC's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nashville SC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York Red Bulls expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nashville SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while New York Red Bulls sit 8 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls sit 8 with 25 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:39 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nashville SC Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 40 points from 18 games, Nashville SC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 35:14, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Mukhtar (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), S. Surridge (3 goals), with creative support from H. Mukhtar (4 assists), Cristian Espinoza (4 assists), A. Najar (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 5 times, Nashville SC won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:3 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 2, Nashville SC 2
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 5, draws 4, Nashville SC wins 1
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
15.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
Last matches: Nashville SC
16.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
4
1
W
01.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
25.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
23.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
CF Montreal
1
0
W
18.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
18.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
H2H: New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
15.05.25
H2H
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
L
02.03.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
W
15.06.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
24.02.24
H2H
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
22.10.23
H2H
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
W
05.03.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
21.01.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
1
0
W
21.01.23
H2H
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
W
07.11.21
H2H
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
19.06.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
W
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Hartford Athletic
5
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
3
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Sarasota Paradise
1
3
L
H2H at home: New York Red Bulls
02.03.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
W
15.06.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
05.03.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
21.01.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
1
0
W
19.06.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
W
Last matches: Nashville SC
01.08.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
25.07.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
18.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
18.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
2
2
D
H2H away: Nashville SC
02.03.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
L
15.06.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
05.03.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
0
D
21.01.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
1
0
L
19.06.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
2
0
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.42
Draw 3.90
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.98
Draw 2.55
Home 3.21
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 2.5 1.55
Over 2.75 1.68
Over 3.0 1.87
Over 3.25 2.11
Over 3.5 2.36
Over 4.5 4.02
Over 5.5 7.69
Under 1.5 5.54
Under 2.5 2.56
Under 2.75 2.29
Under 3.0 2.03
Under 3.25 1.78
Under 3.5 1.63
Under 4.5 1.26
Under 5.5 1.10
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 3.80
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.40
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.75
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.28
Draw 3.65
Home 2.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 2.35
Home 3.05
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.85
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.50
Over 2.75 1.63
Over 3.0 1.80
Over 3.25 2.05
Over 3.5 2.28
Over 3.75 2.65
Over 4.0 3.25
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 7.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Under 1.5 5.30
Under 2.5 2.50
Under 2.75 2.20
Under 3.0 1.95
Under 3.25 1.73
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 3.75 1.45
Under 4.0 1.30
Under 4.5 1.23
Under 5.5 1.07
Under 6.5 1.01

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

New York Red Bulls 2 missing
-
R. Mosquera
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
A. Marcucci
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Nashville SC 2 missing
-
P. Yazbek
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
W. Madrigal
Questionable Lower-Body Injury
OUT