🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: R. Mendoza
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
Charlotte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
P. Biel · Assist: L. Abada
Charlotte
12'
A. Westwood · Assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
🟨
48'
L. Abada
Charlotte
🟨
56'
J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
62'
H. Toffolo ↔ W. Cleary
Charlotte
🔄
70'
C. Cowell ↔ M. Sofo
New York Red Bulls
🔄
71'
D. Nealis ↔ J. Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
71'
E. Forsberg ↔ M. Jimenez
New York Red Bulls
🔄
71'
L. de la Torre ↔ D. Diani
Charlotte
🔄
72'
L. Abada ↔ T. Smalls
Charlotte
🟨
77'
A. Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls
🔄
82'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
82'
P. Biel ↔ B. Bronico
Charlotte
🔄
84'
M. Dos Santos ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🔄
84'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ A. Rojas
New York Red Bulls
🟨
85'
O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🟨
90+2'
J. Che
New York Red Bulls
🟨
90+3'
A. Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls
🟥
90+3'
A. Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 64.4%
Draw 14.4%
Charlotte Win 21.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.62
Charlotte1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
32 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.6
2.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
16
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
13
5.06
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 22 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 20 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Charlotte
8 Wins 9
4 Draws 4
10 Losses 7
39 Goals For 32
48 Goals Against 28
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
2.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
16 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 13
13 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
5.06 Shots On Goal 5
13.25 Total Shots 11.75
6.06 Corners 4.69
52.8% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Charlotte's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Charlotte. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 22 points after 15 matches. They have recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 25:32 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Ronald Donkor (1 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Cade Cowell (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlotte Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Charlotte have collected 21 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pep Biel (3 goals), Idan Toklomati (3 goals), Morrison Agyemang (2 goals), with creative support from Kerwin Calderón Vargas (3 assists), Pep Biel (2 assists), Ashley Westwood (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 5 times, Charlotte won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.58 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 3, Charlotte 1
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 5, draws 3, Charlotte wins 4
Stats
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
Charlotte Charlotte
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
0
6 Corner Kicks 1
14 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 1
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Goal 3
11 Shots off Goal 1
7 Blocked Shots 0
20 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
644 Total passes 351
575 Passes accurate 271
2.38 expected_goals 0.27
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

New York Red Bulls
Formation
Charlotte
Ethan Horvath
Ethan Horvath
Dylan Nealis
Dylan Nealis
Justin Che
Justin Che
Julián Bazán
Julián Bazán
Matthew Dos Santos
Matthew Dos Santos
Ronald Donkor
Ronald Donkor
Adri Mehmeti
Adri Mehmeti
Emil Forsberg
Emil Forsberg
Cade Cowell
Cade Cowell
Julian Hall
Julian Hall
Jorge Ruvalcaba
Jorge Ruvalcaba
Kristijan Kahlina
Kristijan Kahlina
Nathan Byrne
Nathan Byrne
Morrison Agyemang
Morrison Agyemang
Henry Kessler
Henry Kessler
Harry Toffolo
Harry Toffolo
Ashley Westwood
Ashley Westwood
Luca De La Torre
Luca De La Torre
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
🎯
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
Pep Biel
Pep Biel
Liel Abada
🎯
Liel Abada
Idan Toklomati
Idan Toklomati
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
Starting XI
34
Ethan Horvath
G
12
Dylan Nealis
↓ 71'
D
2
Justin Che
🟨 90+2'
D
14
Julián Bazán
D
56
Matthew Dos Santos
↓ 84'
D
48
Ronald Donkor
M
15
Adri Mehmeti
🟨 77' 🟨 90+3' 🟥 90+3'
M
10
Emil Forsberg
↓ 71'
M
7
Cade Cowell
↓ 70'
F
16
Julian Hall
F
11
Jorge Ruvalcaba
↓ 84' 🟨 56'
F
Substitutes
3
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
↑ 71'
D
37
Mohammed Sofo
↑ 70'
F
91
Mijahir Jimenez
↑ 71'
F
5
Omar Valencia
↑ 84' 🟨 85'
D
70
Andy Rojas
↑ 84'
F
77
John McCarthy
G
26
Tim Parker
D
4
Gustav Berggren
M
80
Nathan Worth
M
Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kristijan Kahlina
G
14
Nathan Byrne
D
44
Morrison Agyemang
D
22
Henry Kessler
D
15
Harry Toffolo
↓ 62'
D
8
Ashley Westwood
⚽ 12'
M
17
Luca De La Torre
↓ 71'
M
18
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
🎯 12'
M
16
Pep Biel
⚽ 7' ↓ 82'
M
11
Liel Abada
🎯 7' ↓ 72' 🟨 48'
M
9
Idan Toklomati
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
35
Will Cleary
↑ 62'
D
28
Djibril Diani
↑ 71'
M
25
Tyger Smalls
↑ 72'
F
13
Brandt Bronico
↑ 82'
M
7
Archie Goodwin
↑ 82'
F
21
Tyler Miller
G
4
Andrew Privett
D
3
Tim Ream
D
37
Rodolfo Aloko
F
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
22.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
1
1
D
19.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
1
L
15.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
Last matches: Charlotte
22.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
DC United
3
1
W
19.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
3
D
15.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Columbus Crew
3
1
W
02.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
23.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
23.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
0
1
L
09.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
11.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
21.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
6
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Austin
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
H2H: New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
25.07.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
21.03.26
H2H
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
6
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L
28.05.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
4
2
W
24.08.24
H2H
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
29.05.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
5
2
W
21.06.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
2
D
25.03.23
H2H
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
09.10.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
0
W
11.06.22
H2H
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
2
0
L
26.05.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
W
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
22.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
1
1
D
19.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
0
1
L
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Hartford Athletic
5
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
3
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Sarasota Paradise
1
3
L
H2H at home: New York Red Bulls
25.07.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
28.05.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
4
2
W
29.05.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
5
2
W
21.06.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
0
W
26.05.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
W
Last matches: Charlotte
19.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
3
D
02.08.26
Maj
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
07.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
Charlotte
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Charlotte
25.07.26
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
W
28.05.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
4
2
L
29.05.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
L
25.10.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
5
2
L
21.06.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
2
0
L
26.05.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
3
1
L

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 4 2 43:17 26 49
W W W D L
2 21 11 6 4 49:40 9 39
L D L D W
3 20 11 3 6 37:26 11 36
D W W W L
4 21 10 4 7 33:26 7 34
D W L L D
5 21 9 5 7 38:32 6 32
W D W L W
6 21 8 7 6 49:47 2 31
D W D W L
7 21 7 6 8 35:30 5 27
D L L D W
8 21 7 5 9 31:43 -12 26
D L L W L
9 21 7 3 11 34:51 -17 24
W L D L W
10 21 5 9 7 31:37 -6 24
W D W D L
11 21 5 9 7 28:36 -8 24
L L D D W
12 21 6 3 12 25:36 -11 21
W W W L L
13 21 5 6 10 31:38 -7 21
D D W W W
14 21 5 6 10 29:39 -10 21
D W D D L
15 21 5 5 11 30:36 -6 20
L L L D W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

New York Red Bulls 3 missing
-
E. M. Choupo-Moting
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
R. Mosquera
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
A. Marcucci
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Charlotte 1 missing
-
A. Saint-Maximin
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT