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MEXICO › LIGA MX
19.10.2026 01:00
Estadio BBVA
Referee: Cesar Arturo Ramos

Monterrey vs CF Pachuca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54%
Odds 1.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54%
1.64 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.63 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Monterrey Win 54%
Draw 9.8%
CF Pachuca Win 36.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monterrey1.6
CF Pachuca1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monterrey Monterrey
WWDLW
35 GF / 24 GA
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
WLDWL
21 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
13
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
7
5.93
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monterrey Monterrey 19 matches
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 12 matches
Monterrey Statistic CF Pachuca
9 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 4
35 Goals For 21
24 Goals Against 15
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
13 BTTS Yes 7
17 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
5.93 Shots On Goal 4.64
16.5 Total Shots 16.36
5.71 Corners 5.09
55.9% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors CF Pachuca. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Monterrey Analysis

So far, Monterrey have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 14 points from 10 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 17:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Ocampos (4 goals), D. Rossi (2 goals), H. Cuypers (2 goals), with creative support from Óliver Torres (2 assists), L. Ocampos (1 assists), D. Rossi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

CF Pachuca Analysis

CF Pachuca sit 12 with 12 points after 10 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 15:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Rondón (11 goals), O. Idrissi (1 goals), E. Montiel (1 goals), with creative support from O. Idrissi (3 assists), R. Pizarro (3 assists), C. Sánchez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey won 5 times, CF Pachuca won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:26 from Monterrey's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Monterrey 4-2-3-1 / CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Monterrey wins 5, draws 2, CF Pachuca wins 8

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:11 11 21
D W D L W
2 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
3 11 6 2 3 25:15 10 20
L D L W W
4 10 6 2 2 15:8 7 20
W W D W W
5 11 5 4 2 18:11 7 19
D L D W W
7 11 5 2 4 22:21 1 17
D D L W W
8 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
9 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
10 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
11 10 4 2 4 17:15 2 14
D L W D L
12 11 3 4 4 18:14 4 13
D L D W W
13 11 3 4 4 13:15 -2 13
W W L D D
14 11 4 1 6 12:16 -4 13
W W W W L
15 11 3 3 5 15:20 -5 12
L W W L L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 11 1 1 9 8:26 -18 4
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)