BRAZIL SERIE A
17.07.2026 23:00
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Bruno Santos · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
VAR
37'
Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
38'
Denilson
Mirassol
40'
Edson Carioca · Assist: Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
41'
Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🔄
46'
F. Amuzu ↔ Willian
Gremio
🔄
46'
Gabriel Mec ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
46'
Caio Paulista ↔ Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
46'
M. Villasanti ↔ L. Perez
Gremio
🟨
65'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
72'
Edson Carioca ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
75'
Bruno Santos ↔ Andre Luis
Mirassol
🔄
76'
Japa ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
77'
Carlos Vinicius · Assist: C. Pavon
Gremio
🟨
79'
Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🔄
80'
J. Nardoni ↔ Riquelme
Gremio
🔄
83'
Alesson ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
83'
Denilson ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
86'
Tete ↔ Marcos Rocha
Gremio

Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.6%
-
BTTS Yes
74.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 61.6%
Draw 4.5%
Gremio Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.17
Gremio1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
25 GF / 28 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
26 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
11
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
10
4.35
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 23 matches
Gremio Gremio 21 matches
Mirassol Statistic Gremio
8 Wins 7
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 8
25 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 27
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
11 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 6
4.35 Shots On Goal 3.61
13 Total Shots 11.33
5.3 Corners 3.89
51.3% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Mirassol appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Gremio. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mirassol Analysis

With 16 points from 17 games and a place of 19, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), Shaylon (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Igor Formiga, Nathan Fogaca, Negueba, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 20:23, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (9 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from F. Amuzu (3 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), C. Pavon (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Marlon unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 4 times, Gremio won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:6 from Mirassol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 3, Gremio 3
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 4, draws 1, Gremio wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B