BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: B. Arleu
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Bruno Santos · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
VAR
37'
Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
38'
Denilson
Mirassol
40'
Edson Carioca · Assist: Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
41'
Walter Kannemann
Gremio
🔄
46'
F. Amuzu ↔ Willian
Gremio
🔄
46'
Gabriel Mec ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
46'
Caio Paulista ↔ Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
46'
M. Villasanti ↔ L. Perez
Gremio
🟨
65'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
72'
Edson Carioca ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
75'
Bruno Santos ↔ Andre Luis
Mirassol
🔄
76'
Japa ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
77'
Carlos Vinicius · Assist: C. Pavon
Gremio
🟨
79'
Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🔄
80'
J. Nardoni ↔ Riquelme
Gremio
🔄
83'
Alesson ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
83'
Denilson ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
86'
Tete ↔ Marcos Rocha
Gremio

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.6%
-
BTTS Yes
74.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 61.6%
Draw 4.5%
Gremio Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.17
Gremio1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
25 GF / 28 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
26 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
11
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
10
4.35
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 23 matches
Gremio Gremio 21 matches
Mirassol Statistic Gremio
8 Wins 7
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 8
25 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 27
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
11 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 6
4.35 Shots On Goal 3.61
13 Total Shots 11.33
5.3 Corners 3.89
51.3% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Mirassol appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Gremio. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mirassol Analysis

With 16 points from 17 games and a place of 19, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), Shaylon (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Igor Formiga, Nathan Fogaca, Negueba, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 20:23, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (9 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from F. Amuzu (3 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), C. Pavon (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Marlon unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 4 times, Gremio won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:4 from Mirassol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 3, Gremio 3
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 4, draws 0, Gremio wins 0
Stats
Mirassol Mirassol
Gremio Gremio
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
5 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Goal 4
9 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 5
4 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
340 Total passes 445
273 Passes accurate 371
1.38 expected_goals 0.52
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mirassol
Formation
Gremio
Walter
Walter
Igor Formiga
🎯
Igor Formiga
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Denilson
🎯
Denilson
Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo
Japa
Japa
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca
Bruno Santos
Bruno Santos
Alesson
Alesson
Weverton
Weverton
C. Pavon
🎯
C. Pavon
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann
Caio Paulista
Caio Paulista
J. Nardoni
J. Nardoni
M. Villasanti
M. Villasanti
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec
Tete
Tete
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
F. Amuzu
F. Amuzu
Mirassol 4-3-3
Starting XI
22
Walter
G
32
Igor Formiga
🎯 16'
D
34
Joao Victor
D
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
D
6
Reinaldo
D
8
Denilson
🎯 40' ↓ 83' 🟨 38'
M
21
Jose Aldo
M
5
Japa
↓ 76'
M
95
Edson Carioca
⚽ 40' ↓ 72'
F
30
Bruno Santos
⚽ 16' ↓ 75'
F
77
Alesson
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
1
Georgemy
G
90
Thomazella
G
17
Fernandinho
↑ 83'
F
27
A. Galeano
F
12
Victor Luis
D
20
Daniel Borges
D
10
Chico Kim
↑ 83'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
↑ 72'
2
Lucas Oliveira
D
7
Shaylon
↑ 76'
M
9
Andre Luis
↑ 75'
F
18
Elias
D
Gremio 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Weverton
G
7
C. Pavon
🎯 77'
D
6
Gustavo Martins
🟨 65'
D
4
Walter Kannemann
🟨 41'
D
38
Caio Paulista
↓ 46'
D
5
J. Nardoni
↓ 80'
M
20
M. Villasanti
↓ 46'
M
37
Gabriel Mec
↓ 46'
M
21
Tete
↓ 86'
F
95
Carlos Vinicius
⚽ 77'
F
9
F. Amuzu
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Grando
G
10
Willian
↑ 46'
M
22
M. Braithwaite
↑ 46'
F
14
Marcos Rocha
↑ 86'
D
17
Dodi
M
19
E. Noriega
M
54
Pedro Gabriel
↑ 46'
D
43
Luis Eduardo
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
11
M. Monsalve
M
33
L. Perez
↑ 46' 🟨 79'
M
65
Riquelme
↑ 80'
M
Last matches: Mirassol
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
26.07.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
H2H: Mirassol vs Gremio
17.07.26
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
13.09.25
H2H
Gremio
Mirassol
0
1
W
16.04.25
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
4
1
W
02.03.22
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
3
2
W
Last matches: Mirassol
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
11.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
29.01.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
H2H at home: Mirassol
17.07.26
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
16.04.25
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
4
1
W
02.03.22
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
3
2
W
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H away: Gremio
17.07.26
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
L
16.04.25
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
4
1
L
02.03.22
H2H
Mirassol
Gremio
3
2
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 20 11 3 6 28:19 9 36
W W W W D
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
8 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
9 20 7 7 6 22:20 2 28
D W W W L
10 20 7 6 7 25:27 -2 27
D L L W W
11 20 7 6 7 26:30 -4 27
L W D W D
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
?
LIBC CL group stage
LIBC Play-offs
Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation

Missing Players

Mirassol 3 missing
-
Willian Machado
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Nathan Fogaca
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Gremio 3 missing
-
Thiago Beltrame
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Marlon
Missing Fixture Broken ankle
OUT
-
M. Braithwaite
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT