Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
61.6%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
74.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
76.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 11.5 Corners |
68.8%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Mirassol
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Mirassol
23 matches
Gremio
21 matches
| Mirassol | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 7 |
| 4 | Draws | 6 |
| 11 | Losses | 8 |
| 25 | Goals For | 26 |
| 28 | Goals Against | 27 |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.24 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 14 | Over 1.5 | 16 |
| 10 | Over 2.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 4.35 | Shots On Goal | 3.61 |
| 13 | Total Shots | 11.33 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.89 |
| 51.3% | Ball Possession | 49.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Mirassol appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Gremio. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
With 16 points from 17 games and a place of 19, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), Shaylon (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Igor Formiga, Nathan Fogaca, Negueba, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 20:23, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinicius (9 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from F. Amuzu (3 assists), Edenilson (2 assists), C. Pavon (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Marlon unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 4 times, Gremio won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:6 from Mirassol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 53:22 | 31 | 57 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 10 | 46 |
D
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41:35 | 6 | 45 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40:32 | 8 | 43 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 42 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35:31 | 4 | 39 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37:38 | -1 | 38 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32:29 | 3 | 36 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39:39 | 0 | 35 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31:30 | 1 | 33 |
L
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 33 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28:29 | -1 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 38:41 | -3 | 32 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 |
Mirassol
Home
|
27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 29 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
| 16 |
Gremio
Away
|
26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28:35 | -7 | 28 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
| 17 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 28 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30:43 | -13 | 23 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28:52 | -24 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
D
|